Pre-hurricane season predictions made by research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Weather Research Center verified this year as Hurricane Danny struck the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi back in July. The research team indicated the coastline from Louisiana to Mississippi had the highest chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year with a 70 percent chance of landfall. The next highest risk was the west coast of Florida with a 60 percent chance. Both of these forecasts verified when Hurricane Danny made landfall on July 21 and 22.

In addition, the team's outlook called for seven named storms to develop in the Atlantic basin with four reaching hurricane intensity. There were seven named systems that formed, with Bill, Danny and Erika intensifying into hurricanes. Also, there was a 50 percent chance of having a Category 3 or greater hurricane. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 114 MPH. This verified with Hurricane Erika intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 MPH.

The Center has been making these predictions since 1985. In the past 13 years, the outlook has only missed the highest probability strike area in two years, 1987 and 1992. However in both of those years, storms made landfall in the second highest probability strike area. This is an accuracy percentage of 85 percent.

The accompanying chart shows Weather Research Center's forecasts for the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin from 1985 to1997 versus Dr. William Gray's May 1 forecasts and the actual number of observed storms. Note that WRC's forecasts for the number of storms was exactly five out of the thirteen years. However Dr. Gray's May 1 forecast never matched exactly. WRC missed by one storm or less seven out of the thirteen years, while Dr. Gray's forecasts missed by one storm four of the thirteen years.

According to Hasling, since 1900 there have only been 14 years when there were no August tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The last year with no August storms was back in 1961. In 1961, the first storm formed on July 20 and the next storm did not form until September 2. The years with no August storm activity include: 1902, 1904, 1905, 1907, 1912, 1914, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1925, 1929, 1941 and 1961. Nine of these years were El Nino Years.

Since 1900, there has been 13 years when there has only been one tropical cyclone (hurricane or tropical storm) in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin during the month of September. The last time there was only one September storm was back in 1946.

The years with only one September storm were: 1902; 1904; 1911; 1912; 1914; 1919; 1922; 1925; 1929; 1930; 1938; 1939 and 1946. The two years without October or November storms were in 1914 and 1930 - both El Nino years. A strong El Nino event is probably to blame for this season's lack of tropical activity. Strong upper level westerly winds prevailed much of the season across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. These stronger winds prohibited tropical disturbances from forming.

Season's Greetings

A golf team from the Weather Channel in Atlanta led by Jim Cantorie will be heading to Houston in April to compete in the third annual Weatherman's Classic which will be held at the Hearthstone Country Club April 20. There has already been fighting words as to who will be the top meteorological golfer. The defending weatherman is Dr. Neil Frank and his team who says no other weather team can come close. So, come see sparks fly this April 20 on the greens.

The Weather Museum is currently open by appointment only. When the following projects are completed, the staff is hoping to have the museum open full time - hopefully by the end of 1998. The following projects must be completed. If you or your company can help us, either with suggestions or support, please contact Denise Miles, project coordinator.

Project 1: New A/C - Heating Unit and Electrical and Lighting

Project 2: Sheet Rock and window sills

Project 3: Paint

Project 4: Flooring or carpet

Project 5: Building of Displays

Many people mistakenly believe that the depth of the water plays a major role in the day-to-day wind wave forecasting. It does not! The only time when depth should come into consideration is when operations occur in very shallow water. More specifically, wave heights cannot exceed three-fourths of the water depth. For example, if you are working in 12 feet of water, the wave cannot be higher than 9 feet. Below are a few examples showing this relationship:

The conversion for fathoms into feet:

Maximum Possible Wave

for Depth

2 fathoms 12 ft 9 ft

5 fathoms 30 ft 22.5 ft

10 fathoms 60 ft 45 ft

25 fathoms 150 ft 112.5 ft

50 fathoms 300 ft 225 ft

Actually it is the fetch, or distance from land, that plays the major role in determining wave heights. In the Gulf of Mexico, if you have strong winds with unlimited fetches of 50 miles or greater, the waves generated at five fathoms or deeper will be the same height regardless of the water depth. It would take a wind of 35 knots or stronger to produce a significant wave of nine feet or higher.

Again, the element that most influences the waves is the fetch. The fetch-area is defined as the area over which a wind is blowing toward the site. Weather Research Center defines its fetch area in the Gulf of Mexico as 50 nautical miles. When a landmass limits this fetch-area (such as north winds blowing off the coast), the wave heights are dramatically affected. In the Gulf of Mexico, it is this method that must be applied to the oil leases that are less than 50 miles from the coast when a northerly wind occurs and off the Texas coast westerly wind components. There are a few locations near the Mississippi Delta that will also produce a lower wave as a result of some southwesterly winds.

If waves are only calculated using the depth, or fathom method, than strong southerly winds would produce lower waves and different depths. This cannot happen!

It is important you communicate with your forecast service and make sure that they are using the proper wave calculation to determine wave heights.

Want to know what the weather is doing in just about any part of the world? Then you need to check out http://www.wxresearch.com! By clicking onto the Weather Research Center's home page, you can access all kinds of weather. We also have an extensive link network containing "jumps" to just about any weather you are seeking. We have added many new links as well as a complete menu of Texas weather information. To view the index of WRC pages and related links, click onto the main page and add:

Do you have sensitive operations offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and you need an easy means to access weather information? Then Weather Navigatortm is the answer! With forecasts for every lease area offshore, accompanied by links to radar, satellite and real-time observations, planning activities for your operations has never been easier. If you have no need for that much information, but want to be on top of the Gulf of Mexico weather, then Gulf Express is the answer. This will allow you access to general Gulf of Mexico weather information. Both services however provide adequate information.

But the Gulf of Mexico is not the only area that is provided with an exclusive service. There is the Storm Navigatortm, designed specifically for refineries and other petro-chemcial businesses along the coast. There is an Energy Service for those business who need detailed information about temperature, heating and cooling degree days, as well as many others. We are also constantly adding new features to the above services, so it would be wise to access these pages daily to see what is available.

Don't compare our on-line services to anyone else - there is no comparison! If you would like to try out any of these services for a free trial period, please call Mike Arellano here at the Center.

Houston has had an extremely busy rainfall year with 55.96 inches of rain to date. On average, the Bayou City only receives about 46 inches a rain per year. Looking back into the history books, since 1889 there have been 27 years when Houston has had more than 55 inches of rain in a year. And there have been 17 years with over 60 inches of rainfall. Ten of these seventeen years have been classified as El Nino years. In the chart below are the years and the rainfall:

A special session of Weather Camp was held on Saturday November 22 for a group of

Cub scouts.

Lora Jean Wilson is one of our new interns. She plans to attend the University of Oklahoma.

1997 Atlantic Hurricane Summaries will be available shortly. If you do not receive your summary by the end of December call or email the Center.

Gulf of Mexico Ocean Current forecasts available.