A Weather Research Center newsletter MARCH/APRIL 1998 Houston, Texas

The Weathermen pick the prettiest April day to play golf

For the third consecutive year, the weathermen picked the best day in April to hold a golf tournament - the Weatherman's Classic, a fund-raising tournament benefiting the Weather Museum. Not a cloud could be spotted Monday, April 20, out on the greens of the Hearthstone Country Club. Weathermen as far away as Atlanta came to make an attempt to capture the title of best weathercaster on the golf course. And for the third year in row, Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU-TV won the title. His team edged out the Atlanta-based Weather Channel team including anchors Jim Cantore, Bruce Edwards, Marshall Seese and Keith Westerlage.

Other weathermen who challenged Dr. Frank were Doug Brown and Gene Norman of KTRK- TV, Frank Billingsley of KPRC-TV, David Paul of KHOU-TV and Cecilia Sinclair of KRIV-Fox 26. There were also teams from the National Weather Service led by Bill Read, Weather Research Center, Wilkens Weather Technologies, Source Environmental Sciences and Baseops International. Kathie Turner of KHOU-TV acted as honorary course judge, making sure no one was cheating. As expected, all weathercasters took full credit for the beautiful weather.

The other winners for the day were: Second place: Palais Royal Team consisting of Carl Tooker, Harry Brown, Jim Marcum and Steve Lovell. Third place: Paul Freeman, Morgan Bomar, Guy Gagne and Andy Wilson. Putting contest: Jerry Dalton. Longest drive: Eddie Battenfield. Closest to the pin: Bob Orkin. "The tournament is a good way to help raise funds for the Weather Museum which will house Weather Research Center's educational programs," said Center director Jill F. Hasling. "This was a great day for all of the meteorologists of the city to get together and have fun! We were very happy to have a team from the Weather Channel compete this year and next year we hope to have many more out-of-towners participate."

If you wish to contribute to the Weather Museum, would like to become a founding member, or have a child interested in attending Weather Camp, contact the Weather Research Center at (713) 529-3076 or email at wrc@wxresearch.com. Or check out our website at http://www.wxresearch.com

March was a great month for the Museum

Weather Research Center received a $10,000 grant from the Brown Foundation, Inc. to be used to renovate a portion of The Weather Museum into classrooms for the upcoming Weather Camp, as well as other weather education seminars and courses.

The non-profit Center is in the process of renovating the entire building to house the Weather Museum. Tours of the facility and of the forecast center at the Weather Research Center are currently available by appointment.

"With grants such as this, the museum is becoming a reality," said Jill Hasling, director of the Center. "Hopefully, we will be able to use some of the museum space this summer for our Weather Camp sessions," she added. These mini-camps are one day sessions on topics such as tornadoes, hurricanes and weather forecasting.

Other fund raising efforts being carried out by the Center include the Annual Weatherman's Classic which is held every April with the proceeds going to the Weather Museum. The golf tournament features meteorologists from across the country who participate by either sponsoring or playing in the tournament. Another project is Dr. Neil Frank's Weather Almanac sponsored by KHOU-TV and Kroger. The almanac is only 99 cents and proceeds go to the Weather Museum. The almanacs are available at the pharmacy or courtesy booth At Kroger.

Another way for interested persons to participate is by becoming a founding member. There is still time to become a founding member of the Weather Museum. Your donation will allow you to be remembered on the donor wall of the museum for all to see in the future. For more information on the Center or the Weather Museum, please call (713) 529-3076, or email at wrc@wxresearch.com.

Stewart & Stevenson donates computers for Weather Camp

The Center recently received many computers from Stewart & Stevenson. The donation of equipment will be very beneficial for this summer's Weather Camp. Each camper will be able to use a computer to play the weather games, as well as to learn about weather safety and the weather process.

 

1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:

Florida may see a stormy season

Although Florida has already experienced some rough weather in recent months, the upcoming hurricane season may deal another blow to the sunshine state. The 1998 hurricane season predictions made by research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center indicate that Florida has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year. The west coast of Florida has a 90 percent chance with the east coast of Florida having a 70 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Mexico also has a 70 percent chance of experiencing a storm and Texas has a 60 percent chance.

In addition, the team's outlook calls for eight named storms to develop in the Atlantic Basin, with five reaching hurricane intensity. Also, there is a 45 percent chance of having a major (category 3 or greater) hurricane. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 114 MPH. The outlook calls for two to three storms to make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast.

Weather Research Center has been making these predictions since 1985. In the past 13 years, the outlook has only missed the highest probability strike area in two years - 1987 and 1992. However in both of those years, storms made landfall in the second highest probability strike area. This is an accuracy percentage of 85 percent.

Significant storms that have formed in this phase of the outlook include Hurricane Gilbert in 1988; the 1915 Galveston storm and the 1935 Florida Keys storm. The least number of storms to develop in this phase was back in 1925 when only two tropical storms formed.

The monthly distribution of storm development is 50 percent chance of a June storm, 70 percent for July; 90 percent chance for August; 100 percent chance for September; 90 percent chance for October, 80 percent chance for November storms and 10 percent chance of a December storm. It could be a long season!

Below is a chart representing a graphical depiction of this upcoming season's projections. The number indicates the chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the indicated coast.

The names for the 1998 hurricane season are:

Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Georges, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Mitch, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginia and Walter.

March/April brings severe weather to Gulf Coast States

During a severe weather outbreak on the pre-dawn hours of March 20, 14 people were killed in Gainesville, Georgia. On April 8, tornadoes broke out in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. Over 20 people were killed. From 1953 to 1996, Alabama has witnessed 938 tornadoes. On average, Alabama has 21 tornadoes every year. The greatest number of twisters was 45 which occurred in 1983. The least amount was five in 1956. There have been 280 deaths during the period 1953-1996. There is an average of six deaths per year in the state of Alabama and it is ranked fourteenth in the number of tornadoes per state, but is fourth in the number of deaths by state. Alabama is ranked third in the number of injuries.

Other Alabama tornadoes that killed 20 or more people include: March 27, 1994, in Cherokee County, 20 dead and 147 injured; April 15, 1956, 25 dead and 200 injured in Jefferson County; April 4, 1977, 22 dead and 130 injured in Jefferson County; November 15, 1989, 21 dead and 463 injured in Madison County and April 3, 1974, 23 dead and 250 injured in Marion County.

So far in 1998, there has been eleven Texas tornadoes. The last year there were no Texas tornadoes was 1987 reported in the month of April. The average number of tornadoes in Texas is 20 for the month of April; 39 for the month of May and 21 for June.

Weather Camp sponsorships available!

A new program allows for corporate sponsorships for Weather Camp. This worthwhile program lets students ages 7 to 13 come and learn about tornadoes, hurricanes, weather forecasting and weather safety. If your company is interested in sponsoring any aspect of the Weather Camp, please contact Dorri Breher for more details.

Arctic air blasts into the Gulf of Mexico in March, April rain below normal

Believe it or not March is not to late for and invasion of cold air. On March 10 and 11, a strong Arctic cold front moved off the Texas coast dropping the minimum temperature at Houston's Bush Intercontinental Airport to 30 degrees. The record lowest reading for March was set in 1980 when the temperature fell to 22 degrees. The normal daily minimum for March is 50 degrees. More recently on April 23, Houston broke a record with a low temperature of 44 degrees. Cooler, drier air in the wake of a cold front produced the cooler reading. The previous record was 45 degrees set back in 1931. The normal daily minimum for Houston in April is 58 degrees. Unfortunately, rainfall for Houston in the month of April is below normal. Only about a half inch or rain has fallen. The normal amount of rain for April is 3.21 inches.

 

Weather Navigator becoming very popular

As the popularity in the Internet surges, many operators are clicking onto the Center's Weather Navigator to get the latest on Gulf of Mexico weather - including radar pictures,

satellite imagery, loop current information and offshore observations. Every essential piece of information vital to safe operations offshore is just a click away. Whether it's drilling or production operations, offshore personnel can check the weather at any time of the day. Operators can even have their own web site designed for their own personal use. If you have not checked out Weather Navigator and Storm Navigator, contact Mike Arellano at the Center for more information. In addition, the Center's website also has a new Index feature. This index allows you to click out to popular sites on El Nino, tornadoes, climate and local weather.

Our site is located at: http://www.wxresearch.com

If you do not see what you are looking for, or would like something added call the Center, or better yet, e-mail us at wrc@wxresearch.com.