For the fourth consecutive year, the weather was picture-perfect for the Fourth Annual Weatherman's Classic, which was held Monday, April 19 at the Hearthstone Country Club in Houston. Ninety golfers participated in the fund raiser by trying to de-throne Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU-TV. This year, nearly $24,000 was raised which will benefit The Weather Museum.

The tournament’s success can also be attributed to this year’s many sponsors. They included: Transocean Offshore, Elf Exploration, EEX Exploration, Eller Media Group, Houston Marriot - West Loop, la Madeleine, DeMontrond Automotive Group, BP-Amoco, Schlumberger, SeaTrax, Anixter, Stewart & Stevenson, The Weather Channel, Litton - WSI, Ernst & Young, Houston Chronicle-ThisWeek, Gulf Consultants, Palais Royal, Industrial Holdings and Citizens National Bank of Texas.

Once again, first place honors went to Dr. Neil Frank's Team. Second place was to the team sponsored by Industrial Holdings and third place went to Citizens National Bank of Texas - who sponsored Frank Billingsley of KPRC-TV. The Weather Channel team consisting of Jim Cantore, Marshall Seese, Keith Westerlage and Bruce Edwards put in a good challenge to Dr. Neil Frank, but was unable to unseat the reigning champ. The dinner/awards ceremony was hosted by former weathercaster Kathie Turner. Other weather personalities in attendance included Cecila Sinclair (Fox-26), Doug Brown (KTRK-TV), Bill Read, Gene Hafele and Gregg Waller (National Weather Service).

This tournament would not have been possible without the help of the Center's volunteers: J. Lane Dubois Freeman, Sandra Smith, Marj Freeman, Vickki Youngmeyer, Mary Ann Morris, Eileen Silverman, Grace Harper, Wayne Ingram, Dave Hasling, Martha Freeman, Meredith Freeman, Dorri Breher, Heather Scott and Kathie Turner.

Weather Research Center recently presented Chris Mitchell with the Leon F. Graves Award in Meteorology for the best meteorological project by a student. Chris’ project titled: "Stopping a Hurricane Dead in its Tracks" was an entry at this year’s Houston Engineering Science Fair. Chris attends Clear Lake High School.

There has been an explosion in the number of tours and talks given at the Center and numerous reservations have already been made for the summer. Seems like the word is out to come and visit the Weather Research Center. All donations go toward the Weather Museum Project. If you know of a group that would like to come and visit, tell them to make their reservations now!

Meteorologists at the Center assisted with the Enron/104-KRBE concert, the Houston International Festival and Bud World Concert. Officials with these events had purchased weather insurance which requires specialized rainfall measurements. Meteorologists at the Center were chosen to measure potential rainfall. Fortunately, there was no rain to spoil these events, which proves when Center meteorologists are on the job, it does not rain!

Researchers, Dr. John C. Freeman and Jill F. Hasling have begun a project to study Texas Hurricanes with the Texas Department of Insurance. This is a joint project funded by FIRST, Foundation of Insurance Regulatory Studies in Texas.

Finally there is a use for Dr. John Freeman's and Ms. Jill F. Hasling’s long range prediction models - a growing weather market making utilization of weather derivatives. A weather derivative is based on a weather element such as heating degree days, cooling degree days or number of days the temperatures will be above or below a certain threshold. Basically, it is a bet on the weather involving a amount of money. Traders of natural gas are extremely interested in this type of information as it will allow them to fine-tune their buying or selling based on the weather.

With the recent outbreak of deadly tornadoes over the Midwest, Southeast Texas has been fortunate to have been spared the wrath of these types of intense storms. Although Harris County has the most tornadoes sighted anywhere in Texas since 1950, there remains a very low risk of experiencing an F5 tornado. The high number of tornado sightings is attributed to the dense population of the county. If a tornado forms, it will likely be spotted and reported.

Overall since 1950, Texas has experienced six F5 tornadoes. The most recent being in Jarrell, TX, 1997, when a killer tornado caused devastating destruction. According to Dr. John C. Freeman , conditions necessary for an F5 tornado (as rated on the Fujita-Pearson Scale) require that moist air be covered by very warm dry unstable air at altitudes of 5,000 feet and higher. "Harris County's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico does not allow these type of conditions to develop and protects the Houston metro area from F5 tornadoes, since the air in the higher altitudes is moist due to the influence of the Gulf," stated Dr. Freeman.

Overall there have only been a few F4 tornadoes along the Upper Texas coast and there has only been one instance of an F4 tornado in Harris County since 1950. The most recent F4 tornado in the Houston area was the outbreak that occurred on November 21, 1992. That particular tornado struck the Channelview area near Interstate 10 and Beltway 8. Over 200 homes were destroyed and up to 1,000 damaged. Amazingly, there were no fatalities and only a few injuries. Another example of an F4 tornado nearby was during Hurricane Carla in Galveston County on September 12, 1961.

Below is a table of all the F5 tornadoes which have struck the state of Texas:

Location Date Killed Injured

Waco May 11, 1953 114 597

Wichita Co. April 3, 1964 7 111

Lubbock Co. May 11, 1970 26 500

McLennan Co. May 6, 1973 0 0

Brown Co. Apr 19, 1976 0 11

Jarrell May 27, 1997 27 24

In general, Texas has the highest number of tornadoes anywhere in the country. During the period of 1950-1994, Texas recorded 5,490 twisters. Following in a distant second place was Oklahoma with 2,300. During the same time period, Texas had the highest number of tornado-related fatalities (475), the highest injuries (7,452) and the highest in post-storm damages ($1,955,927,552). Tornadoes can develop at any time during the year, but are more common during the Spring months of March, April and May when warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cool, dry air from Canada.

As our newsletter audience expands across the globe, we have decided to add a new section of a summary of significant weather stories.

Eastern - Washington, DC receives 8-12" of snowfall on 3/10/99, a new record for this late in the season. Strong thunderstorms pounded parts of VA and NC on 4/3/99.

Central - Heavy snowfall blankets MN, IA, IN and OH on 3/10/99 and again on 4/3/99. A severe thunderstorm spawns a tornado in Wichita, KS on 4/5/99. A tornado in OH kills four on 4/10.

Southern - A tornado in Benton, LA is responsible for nine deaths on 4/3/99; with 4-6" of rain following the next day. While heavy flooding occurred across Southern and East-central MO leading to one death. The threat of wildfires due to warm, dry conditions plagued TN, GA, FL and NC during most of April. Severe thunderstorms damaged businesses north of Houston, TX on 4/14/99. Tornadoes in GA on 4/15/99 injured 50-60 people, no deaths. Parts of TX broke both high and low temperature records during April (Austin, 38 degrees on 4/17/99; College Station, 36 degrees on 4/17/99; Houston, 91 degrees on 4/23/99).

Western - A strong March (1-4) storm brought high winds and heavy rain to most of the Northwest. High winds caused problems in UT on 4/23/99 with a recorded gust of 113 mph at Brigham City Airport in the morning and 72 mph sustained winds later that day.

Overseas - The significance of weather in our lives can be seen in the recent air bombings of Serbia. NATO military officials have been having great difficulty scheduling air-sorties because of the strong low pressure storms that track right across the region. These storms bring heavy, low cloud cover and high winds making the bombing efforts nearly impossible. Reports have been issued citing only five days of adequate weather since the bombing campaign began on March 24, 1999.

April marks the twelfth month in a row that the monthly average temperatures have been above normal in Houston. Weather records housed at The Weather Museum indicate that this is the first time this has happened in Houston since weather records began. The closet year with nine months in a row was back in 1963 when March-November finished above normal. Below are the years with multiple months with above normal temperatures:

Below is a graph of the departure from normals of the average temperature for the last 12 months. The average is 3.86 degrees. The estimated departure from normal for April is 4.7 degrees.

Forecasters say this summer could be one of its busiest - for Weather Camp'99 that is, hosted by the Weather Research Center. Nearly 100 students participated in the day camp sessions last year and an equal or greater number is expected for the upcoming summer. Education Program Coordinator, Dorri Breher, says "with such a large amount of campers, that means extra work for a small group like ours. That is why we are asking for volunteers to assist meteorologists with the 16 sessions."

Weather Camp was started in 1992 by the non-profit educational and research group. It is meant as an opportunity for children already interested in weather, math and science to learn more from meteorologists. Each day-camp session runs from 10 a.m.-3 p.m. and covers different topics ranging from basic weather elements to severe weather and hurricanes. Fees for Weather Camp are $45 per session and each camper will receive weather hand-outs and a weather kit to take home. Introductory sessions for ages 7-11 and advanced sessions for ages 12-17 are listed below.

Everyone will be required to arrive by 9:30 am and will be able to leave by 4:00 p.m.. Each counselor will receive a staff Tee-shirt and plenty of information on weather and weather safety. Lunch and drinks are not provided.

Duties of the volunteer counselors will include:

Volunteers must be 14 years of age or older. Those ages 14-17 will assist with the introductory sessions; those 18 and up will assist with introductory and advanced sessions. You can sign up to help on just one day, a particular set of sessions, or for the entire summer. Session dates follow. More information on Weather Camp can be obtained by calling Weather Research Center at (713) 529-3076 or on the Internet at http://www.wxresearch.com/camp99.html.

Weather Research Center is looking for funding to have a summer project where students scan in weather data and write it to CD-ROM to preserve it. If you think your company would be interested in supporting such a program, please contact either Jill F. Hasling or J. Lane Dubois at 713-529-3076. Another project under development is the Adult Weather Camp. This would take the curriculum from our standard weather camps and revamp the material so that it would beneficial to adult students.

There is a 90 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Louisiana to Alabama coast during the upcoming hurricane season. This is the highest risk of any of the coastline from Texas through Maine. According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. After Louisiana-Alabama, the next highest risk of a storm strike is the west coast of Florida with a 80 percent chance and the third highest is the Texas coast with a 70 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

The overall outlook calls for ten named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin with six reaching hurricane intensity. There could be storms as early as June which has a 60 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane, and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Also, there is a 80 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH.

As stated, the section of US coastline with the highest risk of experiencing a tropical cyclone is Louisiana to Alabama. So everyone with Gulf operations should be aware that the oil leases have a higher than normal chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year.

Other recent years that have been in this forecast phase are 1957, 1967, 1979 and 1989. Notable storms in those years were Hurricane Audry 1957, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast; Hurricane Beulah in 1967, that made landfall on the lower Texas Coast; Hurricane Frederic in 1979, which made landfall along the Alabama coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which made landfall on the South Carolina coast. Also in 1989, Galveston, Texas saw three storms make landfall: Tropical Storm Allison, Hurricane Chantal and Hurricane Jerry.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory. Last year, the section of coastline with the highest risk was the west coast of Florida with a 90 percent chance. This forecast verified with Hurricanes Earl and Mitch. The outlook called for eight storms. There were 14 total storms, ten becoming hurricanes. During the 14 years of outlooks, these forecasts have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987 and 1992 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Arelene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Floyd, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma.

Weather Research Center has teamed up with radio station KUHF (88.7 FM) to become the voice behind KUHF's exclusive Houston weather forecast. On April 8, meteorologist Mike Arellano started giving live weather reports to the station. KUHF News Director Debra Fraser believes the combination of KUHF and the Weather Research Center will provide the listeners with the weather information they need. There is also a website to obtain the KUHF forecast. This can be found at www.wxresearch.com/kuhf.htm. Check there for all your Houston weather needs. KUHF is part of the National Public Radio (NPR) network and programming consists of classical music, national and local news.

The trivia for the Jan/Feb might have stumped many. Seven billion particles of fog fill one teaspoon. This issue we would like to test your history knowledge. What official branch of the U.S. government first performed non-military weather activities and in what year was it formed? Know the answer? You can e-mail your guess to wrc@wxresearch.com.