tm Weather Research Center

Jill F. Hasling of Weather Research Center was recently named as a Fellow to the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Announcement of this prestigious designation was made on January 12 at the AMS’s 80th Annual Meeting in Long Beach, California. The honor of Fellow is given to an individual for distinguished service in meteorology. A Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Ms. Hasling is the Director of Weather Research Center. The American Meteorological Society certifies meteorologists as Certified Consulting Meteorologist and there are 594 in the nation, of which twelve are women. Ms. Hasling is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas in Houston, Texas.

Ms. Hasling was founding Director of Weather Research Center in 1987, a non-profit educational and research group. One of the successful educational programs carried out by the Center is Weather Camp, which started in 1991. These camps are designed to give people of all ages the knowledge necessary to save their lives in time of severe weather. In 1994, Ms. Hasling envisioned The Weather Museum as a place to host educational programs such as Weather Camp and also allow visitors access to hands-on exhibits.

Founded in 1919, the AMS is the preeminent scientific and professional organization for scientists and practitioners in atmospheric sciences and related oceanic and hydrolic sciences. The Society publishes well-respected scientific journals, sponsors scientific conferences and supports public education programs across the country. The Society chose 24 new fellows this year. Those eligible for the election to Fellow membership grade shall have outstanding contributions to the atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrological sciences or their applications during a substantial period of years. Each year the council elects no more than 0.2% of the AMS membership for this honor.

The Weather Museum at Weather Research Center was in attendance at the annual American Meteorological Society's in Long Beach, California. This year, the museum exhibited in the Book and Electronic Exhibit. This booth allowed meteorologists from the center a chance to let people know about the educational activities of Weather Research Center. In addition, Dorri Breher presented the paper authored by her and Ms. Hasling entitled "Education through Weather Day Camps. Dr. John C. Freeman presented the paper by himself and Ms. Hasling titled, "Astronomical Effects on the Winter Climate of the Midwest."

Dr. John C. Freeman and Mike Arellano presented papers at the AMS’s Meteorology and Oceanography in the Coastal Zone Conference held in New Orleans, Louisiana, November 3-5, 1999. Dr. Freeman’s paper was entitled, "Prediction of the Risk of Tropical Cyclones" and Mr. Arellano’s paper was entitled "The Coastal Marine Meteorologist." J. Lane Dubois Freeman and Heather Scott exhibited at the conference passing out information on the SS-TCP and other Weather Research Center services.

Weather Research Center unveiled two new fund raising campaigns while at the annual AMS meeting in Long Beach. The first is the purchase of a glass brick for the lobby area of The Weather Museum, and the second is the purchase of a paving stone for the walkway.

The first glass brick was sold to James L. Gooding of Seabrook, Texas, a member of the local Houston chapter of the AMS. Gooding is director of meteorology at Duke Energy.

The glass blocks will be used in the walls of the new lobby of the Weather Museum in Houston and will be personalized with the name or any special message of the donor. This is one of several levels of donation opportunities available to support the Weather Museum.

The Weather Museum is the creation of Jill F. Hasling, CCM, and Director of the Weather Research Center. The Museum will not only preserve historical equipment and weather data, but also be a place for people of all ages to come and learn about weather safety and just how the weather works.

The call for volunteers has been answered loudly by Houston. We have volunteers helping to archive data, copying forecasts to CD-ROMS, setting up the Library, updating the Center’s scrap book and photo albums and helping with the Weatherman’s Classic. We are still looking for volunteers to help with fundraising and proposal writing. Also Weather Camp is coming soon!

Sponsors continue to come on board for the 2000 Golf Tournament that benefits The Weather Museum. KHOU-TV became a sponsor as well as Litton/WSI. We have also received door prizes from Bering’s Hardware, REI, and many others. If you or your company would like to be a sponsor, or an underwriter, contact Weather Research Center for more information.

A big thank you to the Houston Chronicle ThisWeek which helped with the printing of the Weather Museum and the Weatherman’s Classic brochures that were handed out at the annual American Meteorological Society Meeting in Long Beach.

Sponsored this year by State Farm Insurance, which is giving the Almanac away. You can get your copy from a participating State Farm Insurance agent. Weather Research Center once again provided much of the weather information used in the almanac. Campers at Weather Camp 2000 will use copies this summer.

Arrangements are already underway for this summer’s Weather Camp. New and exciting programs this year include a special session for adults, Meteorological Magic. This class will be offered on a one-day session, July 15 (10 a.m.-4 p.m.), or on a three-night session, July 18, 20 and 25 from 7 p.m.-9 p.m. Other sessions for children include the traditional severe weather, hurricane and forecasting programs. If you would like a copy of the schedule, please call the Center, or check out the web site at www.wxresearch.com.

In the last newsletter edition, we gave the wrong Randall’s Remarkable Card number. The correct number should be 3631. We apologize for the typo and wonder who has been getting our donations?! PLEASE GIVE THE CORRECT NUMBER TO THE CASHIER NEXT TIME YOU USE YOUR RANDALL’s REMARKABLE CARD.

Meteorologists at Weather Research Center predicted that there would be ten named storms with six intensifying into hurricanes for 1999. Overall, there were 12 storms with eight becoming hurricanes. The Center’s outlook also called for an 80 percent chance of Category 3 or stronger storms. This verified with Hurricanes Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny.

The Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) was used to make this outlook. The main forecast made with the OCSI is to indicate which section of the US Coast is at the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane landfall. This year the coast with the highest risk was from Louisiana to Alabama with a 90 percent chance. This year did not verify, with storms hitting on the coast on either side of this section, but not along that section of the coast. The second highest risk coast area was the West Coast of Florida, which verified with Harvey. The box score is as follows:

Coastline Chance Storm

East Coast of US 30% Floyd

North Carolina to Georgia 70% Dennis, Floyd, Irene

East Coast of Florida 60% Irene

West Coast of Florida 80% Harvey

Alabama to Louisiana 90% (none)

Texas 70% Bret

Meteorologists at the Center have been using the OCSI since 1985 to make annual hurricane outlooks. Before 1999, the only two years when a storm did not make landfall in the section of the coast with the highest risk were in 1987 and 1992. But like this year, 1987 and 1992 did have storms in the second highest at risk coastline region. So for the last 15 years that have been forecasted, only three did not verify with the highest probability. Therefore, 12 out of 15 years did verify for an 80 percent score.

1999 Storm Summary

1. Arlene June 11-18 tropical storm 52 kts 1008 mbs

2. Bret Aug 18-25 hurricane 120 kts 944 mbs

3. Cindy Aug 19-31 hurricane 120 kts 944 mbs

4. Dennis Aug 24-Sep 5 hurricane 90 kts 962 mbs 4

5. Emily Aug 24-28 tropical storm 44 kts 1004 mbs

6. Floyd Sep 7-17 hurricane 135 kts 921 mbs 57

7. Gert Sep 11-23 hurricane 130 kts 930 mbs

8. Harvey Sep 19-22 tropical storm 52 kts 994 mbs

9. Irene Oct 13-19 hurricane 95 kts 958 mbs

10. Jose Oct 17-25 hurricane 85 kts 979 mbs 2

11. Katrina Oct 28-Nov 1 tropical storm 35 kts 999 mbs

12, Lenny Nov 13-22 hurricane 135 kts 933 mbs 13

Here’s a list of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s picks for the past century:

1. Galveston Hurricane, September 1900
2. Dust Bowl, 1930s
3. Super Tornado Outbreak, April 1974
4. Hurricane Camille, 1969
5. The Great Midwest Flood, 1993
6. El Nino Episodes, 1982-93 & 1997-98
7. Hurricane Andrew, 1992
8. New England Hurricane, 1938
9. Superstorm, 1993
10. Tri-State Tornado, 1925
11. Oklahoma/Kansas Tornado Outbreak, 1999
12. The Great Okeechobee Hurricane & Flood, 1928
13. The Storm of the Century, 1950
14. Florida Keys Hurricane, 1935
15. New England Blizzard, 1978

1. Yangtze River Flood, China 1931
2. North Vietnam Flood, 1971
3. Great Iran Flood, 1954
4. Bangladesh Cyclone, 1970
5. Bangladesh Cyclone, 1991
6. China Typhoons, 1912, 1922
7. Hurricane Mitch, Honduras & Nicaragua, 1998
8. Typhoon Vera, Japan, 1958
9. Typhoon Thelma, Philippines, 1991
10. Asian Droughts (India 1900, 1907, 1965-67; China 1907, 1928-30, 1936, 1941-42; and Soviet Union 1921-22)
11. Sahel Drought Africa, 1910-1914, 1940-44, 1970-85
12. Iran Blizzard, 1972
13. Europe Storm Surge, 1953
14. Great Smog of London, 1952
15. El Nino, 1982-83

1. Galveston Hurricane, September 1900
2. Hurricane Carla, 1961
3. Thrall, Texas – 38.20 inches of rain, September 9-10, 1921
4. Tropical Storm Claudette, Southeast Texas - 43 inches of rain (Alvin, TX), 1979
5. Jarrell tornado, May 27, 1997
6. Waco tornado May 11, 1953 - 114 killed/597 injured
7. Lubbock tornado, 1970 26 deaths/500 injured
8. January ice storm, entire state, 1973
9. December 1989, Southeast Texas, sub-freezing
10. Goliad tornado, May 18, 1902 – 114 deaths
11. Saragosa tornado, May 22, 1987 – 30 deaths/121 injured
12. Houston flooding, March 1992
13. Wichta Falls tornado, April 10, 1979 54 deaths/1,807 injured
14. Hurricane Alicia, Upper Texas Coast, August 1983
15. Hurricane Beulah, Lower Texas, Sept. 20, 1967- 117 tornadoes spawned
16. Hurricane Celia, Aug. 3, 1970 – peak wind gust of 180 mph

Let us know your favorite weather picks and we’ll include them in the next newsletter! E-mail them to: wrc@wxresearch.com

Houston only received 28.08 inches of rain for 1999, making this the fourth driest year on record. Other dry years were 1917 (17.66"), 1988 (22.93"), 1901 (27.09"), 1956 (28.32"), 1954 (28.76") and 1893 (29.03"). The 1999 season finished fourth behind 1917, 1988 and 1901. In a typical year, Houston on average receives about 46.07 inches of precipitation.

A tropical disturbance in October brought flooding rains to Mexico. There are reports from the government that there were 360 deaths and estimated 315,000 people homeless from flooding and associated landslides.

Hurricane Irene brought more flooding to the US, from the Florida Keys to central Virginia. There were a reported five to fifteen deaths, with flooding damages reaching the $100 million mark in Miami-Dade County, Florida alone.

Tropical Cyclone-4B makes landfall in India with 56 deaths reported and mass destruction to rice paddies. A second storm, a supercyclone, then makes landfall in Orissa, India on October 29th with winds exceeding 160 mph. Up to 15 million people have been affected by the storm with a death toll that will reach into the thousands. It is expected that the supercyclone is the worst cyclone to hit the Indian Bay of Bengal region in three decades.

Extreme flooding hit Venezuela during the middle of December. Tens of thousands of people were displaced by the disaster's mudslides and flooding. As many as 35,000 homes were destroyed and 150,000 people were left homeless. Flooding also affected portions of Africa near and along the Congo River. Meanwhile, drought conditions reduced the water supplies to countries like Zaire, Paraguay and Argentina.

A strong winter storm hit the British Isles, Scandinavia, Denmark, Germany, Poland and the Baltic Sea region. Strong winds, rains and snows all resulted in at least 17 deaths in Northern Europe. Flooding in the central coastal areas of Vietnam caused 70 deaths and left at least one million others in need of assistance.

Typhoon John made landfall on the northwestern coast of Australia on the 15th. Winds were reported gusting to 160 knots making this one of the most powerful storms to hit the island-continent. The category five storm caused relatively little damage on the coast with many people having been evacuated in advance of the storm's wrath.

A second European winter storm affected the southwest Atlantic coastal areas. Deaths were reported at 122 people with 70 in France alone. Heavy snowfall from the storm led to avalanches in the French Alps and loss of power in more than 100 villages in central Romania.

Mount Baker, located in Washington state, holds the record for the most snowfall during a 12 month period from July 1-June 30. In 1998-99, 1,124 inches of snow fell, or 93 feet, 8 inches. The previous record was from neighboring Mount Rainier where 93 feet, 6.5 inches of snow fell in 1971-72. That’s a lot of snow!

O.K, here’s an easy question: which county in Texas has the highest number of tornado sightings? Here’s a hint…. No way, this is too easy! E-mail your answer to: wrc@wxresearch.com

Meteorologist Mike Arellano helped a local troop of Boy Scouts earn their weather badge in January. The scouts had to interview a meteorologist as part of their requirements to earn a weather badge.

Weather Research Center will have a booth at the Offshore Technology Conference this year. The OTC is held every year in Houston during the first week in May. Over 50,000 persons attend the conference and are associated with businesses that operate offshore. These include offshore drilling, transportation and other support services. Our display will feature Weather Navigator, Storm Navigator and the SS-TCP. We will be located at booth 7986. If you are planning to attend the conference, please stop by and say howdy.

Weather Research Center will be exhibiting at the National Hurricane Conference this year in New Orleans on April 17-20. The Center hopes to let the conference attendees know about The Weather Museum and the various hurricane services available at Weather Research Center.

Weather Research Center’s two websites have a new look: www.wxresearch.com and www.wxresearch.org. Educational pages as well as new Museum pages have been added. Several of our weather pages are sponsored by BP Amoco, including the Houston and New Orleans weather forecast, Texas and Louisiana two day forecast maps, as well as the USA two day weather forecast map. Be sure to check them out. Also remember you can still hear WRC’s meteorologists every week day on Houston’s National Public Radio, KUHF-FM (88.7), or you can catch the forecast on the web page, www.wxresearch.com/kuhf.htm.

 The Weather Report is the official newsletter of the Weather Research Center and is published monthly. To receive the newsletter promptly, please send all address corrections to the Center. We are located at 3227 Audley St., Houston, Texas 77098. For information about the Center and its services, please call (713) 529-3076 or toll-free (800) 44-STORM. Our fax number is (713) 528-3538. The e-mail address is wrc@wxresearch.com. Our Internet address is www.wxresearch.com or www.wxresearch.org