THE WEATHER REPORT A Weather Research Center newsletter Summer 1995 Houston, Texas ________________________________________________________________________ 1995 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AT A RECORD PACE The 1995 hurricane season continues at a record pace, with the month of August experiencing an unbelieveable number of storms. Seven tropical storms formed during the month, four of which went on to become hurricanes. Felix, Luis and Marilyn were the strongest storms thus far. It was only the second time that seven named storms formed during the month of August. Only 1933 equalled the record and that year continues to hold the record when 21 named storms developed. CENTER PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO VERIFY. As of this writing, there have been thirteen named tropical systems. These include: tropical storms Barry, Dean, Gabrielle, Jerry and Karen; as well as hurricanes Allison, Chantal, Erin, Felix , Humberto, Luis and Marilyn. Of local interest, Hurricane Erin dealt the state of Florida a double blow as it struck both the Eastern Coast and the Panhandle as a strong hurricane. Erin began as a tropical storm over the Southeastern Bahamas on the evening of July 30. The system was so impressive looking on satellite pictures that it bypassed tropical depression stage and was classified as a tropical storm. Erin posed forecasters problems with its path. The storm initially was forecast to strike Southern Florida, but instead moved further north and went inland near Vero Beach, just south of Cape Canaveral. Erin didn't lose too much strength while tracking westward across the Florida Peninsula and it remained a tropical storm. The storm exited the west coast north of Tampa and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. Erin began a westerly track and began to intensify. While in the Northeastern Gulf, Erin gave forecasters problems. Forecast models at first indicated a track into the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola. But Erin, now back to hurricane strength, insisted on a more westerly course. Hurricane warnings were eventually extended as far west as Morgan City, Louisiana. Many offshore oil interests decided safety was a major reason for evacuating. Continued track projections indicated a landfall point between New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi. But late on the morning of August 3, Erin decided on Pensacola, Florida as the point of landfall. The hurricane packed winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms accompanied landfall. Erin went on to produce heavy rains as a weakening tropical storm and depression over portions of Central Alabama and Mississippi before being absorbed into a frontal boundary over the Northeastern United States. THE WEATHER HURRICANE SEASON KEEPS CENTER BUSY; RESEARCHERS PLEASED WITH 1995 STORM PROJECTIONS The record pace of storms during the 1995 hurricane season has kept forecasters here at the center extremely busy. Not only has there been the responsibility of issuing advisories/updates around the clock, but forecasters also had to field may questions from a concerned public and the media. An initial review of storm operations has indicated favorable results. Meanwhile, researchers here remain quite pleased with the results of the projections made earlier in the year. Hurricane Allison had already verified predictions by making landfall along the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola in early June. Since then, more storms have verified the researchers' projections. For example, the Upper Texas Coast had a 70 percent chance of a storm making landfall. Tropical Storm Dean answered when it made landfall between Galveston and Freeport in early August. It was again the West Coast of Florida that verified the prediction when Hurricane Erin made landfall near Pensacola in August. Although researchers had predicted ten named storms with five to hurricane strength, they are still pleased with the preliminary results. The Center's outlooks are based on the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index. This year 's season is in Phase Ten of the Index. Other years in this phase included: 1887, 1889, 1910, 1922, 1932, 1942, 1953, 1963, 1973 and 1985. The most active Phase Ten years were 1887 and 1953. Seventeen named storms, 10 which became hurricanes occurred in 1887 and 14 named storms, six of which became hurricane, occurred in 1953. WEATHER LORE: CAN HALOES PREDICT THE WEATHER? Can certain weather phenomena indicate a change in the weather? It appears it can. On June 27, a halo was observed around the sun in the Houston area. Meteorologists at the Center received numerous phone calls from the public including a few frantic calls from persons who thought there may be some biblical connection. Actually, a halo occurs around the sun as a result of the sun light refracting off of ice crystals. At the time of the observance, high cirrus clouds were over the area. Cirrus clouds are thin, high altitude clouds composed of ice crystals. When the sun light hit theses clouds, it caused a halo to appear around the sun. The same effect is occurs at night when the moon is present. Weather lore indicates that when a halo is observed around the sun, rain is certain to follow the next day. The halo was observed on a Tuesday, and sure enough, rain fell in the Houston area the next day. In fact, showers and thunderstorms continued for a few days following. Cirrus clouds are usually the forerunners of an approaching weather system. So when you see cirrus clouds moving in, there may be a change in the weather shortly. WEATHER DATELINE A review of recent significant weather events HOUSTON - On July 29, an upper level disturbance raced southward through the Middle United States and into Southeast Texas during the early morning hours. This disturbance produced very strong winds which caused some damage to buildings in the area. Numerous reports of wind-related damage were reported across much of the Central United States. HOUSTON - During the week of July 22, a severe heat wave gripped Southeast Texas with temperatures soaring from the upper 90s into the lower 100s. The lack of any weather systems aggravated conditions and several brush fires resulted from the relentless heat. WEST PACIFIC OCEAN - If you thought the Atlantic Ocean was busy with tropical activity this year, numerous tropical storms and typhoons formed during the period over the Western Pacific Ocean. They included: Faye, Gary, Helen, Irving, Janis, Kent, Lois, Mark, Nina, Oscar, Polly and Ryan. Two typhoons reached super typhoon intensity (winds in excess of 130 knots); Kent and Oscar. EAST PACIFIC OCEAN - Several storms and hurricane also formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean so far this year. They included: Adolph, Barbara, Cosme, Dalia, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette and Ismael. Only four storms made it to hurricane strength: Adolph, Barbara, Flossie, Henriette and Ismael. THE WEATHER CENTER HAPPENINGS AND PROJECTS News and Notes about the Center and its personnel ISR/WRC EMPLOYEES & UST GRADUATES REUNION PLANNED Plans are underway for a reunion of past employees of the Institute for Storm Research and the Weather Research Center, as well as graduates of the University of St. Thomas (UST) Meteorology Department. The reunion is scheduled for Saturday, November 18, 1995 and will be held on the UST campus at the University Center. For more information about this reunion, please call the Center. WE'RE ON THE INTERNET Weather Research Center has moved onto the Information Superhighway. The Center hosts a home page on the Internet where information about storm predictions will be available. Other updated information such as storm summaries will be added to the page as it becomes available. Our home page address is WWW.Phoneix.net/~WRC/WRC.htm. You can send us E-mail at WRC@Phoneix.net. NEW COMPUTER ONLINE SERVICE NOW AVAILABLE The Center's Forecast Operations is proud to announce a new on-line computer forecast service. For the most part, the same forecasts which are sent via fax are also available on this on-line service. However, color graphics such as radar summaries, weather charts and other information is now available as well. Satellite imagery is updated several times a day. These images show conditions across North America including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. During the hurricane season, there is a special image that shows the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Northern African Continent. This particular images shows the tropical waves and disturbances which move off the African coast. If you are interested in this service, please call the Center regarding software requirements and costs. OTHER SERVICES IN THE MAKING Since the National Weather Service will be discontinuing its agriculture weather forecast at the end of September (as a result of budget costs), many farmers who depend on that information will be left without a forecast. Meteorologist Bill Turner has been busy designing an agriculture forecast that would be made available to radio stations in rural areas. Turner, who hails from the farming state of Iowa, believes he can handle the request. Dr. John C. Freeman and Mon Nguyen are in the process of designing a new numerical weather prediction model for the South China Sea area. This model would assist Center forecasters with their task of issuing forecasts for the offshore oil interests that operate in that region. WEATHER CAMP '95 ANOTHER SUCCESS Another group of aspiring meteorologists visited the Center July 11-13 as part of the Center's Weather Camp summer program. Campers were instructed on basic meteorology such as wind, temperature, pressure, clouds and storms. They were also taught the importance of weather safety: what to do and what not to do during a weather emergency. Those in attendance received a weather camp notebook full of important information, a weather tracker's kit and a weather station which was donated by Sunbeam Instruments. Campers also produced a weather safety poster which was judged for its creativity and information. Special thanks to meteorologist Robert Smith (FOX 26, KRIV-TV Houston) for providing the first place prize. THANKS TO OUR SUMMER INTERNS Special thanks to our student interns who helped out with various tasks this past summer. Michelle Brukardt, who is attending Texas A&M as a meteorology major, helped organized weather data and assisted in forecast operations, especially during the non-stop tropical storms and hurricanes which amounted to many alert hours. Also a big thanks to Randy Nicholson, a high school student from Fort Bend County, Texas. Randy, who has high hopes of becoming a meteorologist, also assisted in the alert hours. He helped maintain the weather data and also assisted in the production of this newsletter. Best of luck to Michelle and Randy during the school year and we look forward to having them here again next summer! NCIM MEETING REPORT Jill Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman recently attended the annual meeting of the National Council of Industrial Meteorologists (NCIM), which was held in Denver , Colorado in June. Ms. Hasling , who is the first woman member of the NCIM, was elected as one of the directors. The NCIM is a group of Certified Consulting Meteorologists who work in the private sector. This particular meeting was exciting and important since much of the discussion centered on many of the National Weather Service cut-backs. Services such as agricultural and marine weather are being eliminated due to budget restraints. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE WEATHER EYE? If you are a native Houstonian, or have lived in Houston for more than 30 years, you know about the famous Weather Eye. For those who do not know about this weather artifact, here is a brief history. The Weather Eye was a large illuminated ball which sat atop the old Texas National Bank/Continental Oil Building in downtown Houston in the late '50s and early '60s. The ball measured 15 feet in diameter and could be seen from up to 25 miles in any direction. The ball was illuminated with different colors which indicated the type of forecoming weather. Red meant warmer weather; white meant cooler weather. A green ball meant no change and a blinking "eye" indicated rain, no matter what the color. The eye came down in 1964 as a result of complaints such as it being a safety hazard and an eyesore (no pun intended). Weather Research Center began investigating where the eye might be located as the Center would like to showplace this weather relic in the planned weather museum and education center. After getting the local media involved, the eye has been found in one of AstroWorld's storage facilities. AstroWorld, an amusement theme park in Houston, originally placed the eye in front of their main gate, but was then removed and put in storage sometime around 1975. Unfortunately, the Astrodome has plans for a museum and they want the rights to the Weather Eye. Special thanks to Ken Hoffman of the Houston Chronicle who helped us track down the whereabouts of the eye. PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK The preliminary results of the Orbital Freeze Outlook indicates that the month of December could have below normal temperatures over most of the United States. However, the months of January and February would return to normal. Of course, these are preliminary findings. If you or your company would like a more detailed winter outlook, please contact the Center with your request. THE DONATIONS CORNER A special thanks to the following individuals and companies for their recent contributions to the Center: Compaq Corporation (computers) Exxon Company USA (computers) The Nicholson Family (computer) Sunbeam Instruments (weather stations) Since the Center is a non-profit organization, your donations are welcome and are used in our Education Center. Students from around the Houston area use these computers to learn about the weather and more importantly, about weather safety. If you have some items that you think may be of use here, please give us a call!