at Weather Research Center

Three generations of scientists at Weather Research Center have developed an operating model for forecasting site specific current profiles in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The Site Specific Thermostrophic Current Profile (SS-TCP) provides a four to seven day current forecast that is available three, five or seven days a week. Each forecast is tailored to the specific location of the customer's operations. This is the only model of its type that is available today.

Dr. John C. Freeman, CCM used his 57 years of experience to assist Heather R. Scott, Oceanographer, to develop a current profile model to be used to forecast currents at varying depths in the Gulf of Mexico. Jill F. Hasling, CCM and Director of Weather Research Center, used her 25 years of experience in meteorology and numerical model programming to help verify and simplify the model for use on a daily basis. The trio represents three generations of scientists and over 75 years of experience combined.

The forecast method was started in the late 1970's when Dr. Freeman and Ms. Hasling developed a large multi-layer current model that was used in the North Sea to predict the currents and extreme conditions for use in building oil platforms.

The addition of Ms. Scott to the staff allowed Weather Research Center to develop the model for use in the Gulf of Mexico. Ms. Scott is a graduate of Texas A&M University with a B.S. in Marine Science. Prior to coming to Weather Research Center, she spent two years as a seismic navigator operating in the Gulf of Mexico. Her knowledge of the bathymetry and ocean currents allowed Weather Research Center to develop and test the model with good results at two sites with very different profiles.

Those companies with operations in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico understand the hazards that these currents can cause. Unexpected current speeds can pose serious problems in operations, costing time and money.

Using the SS-TCP, companies can plan and work, taking into account the forecasted speed and direction of these currents and various depths, providing more efficient work schedules and saving money and equipment. For more information on the SS-TCP and Weather Research Center please contact Heather R. Scott at 713-529-3076 or by e-mail at hscott@wxresearch.com.

Five hurricanes, one tropical storm and four tropical depressions formed during the months of September and October, three of which impacted the U.S. Coast. The hurricanes included Dennis, Floyd, Gert, Irene and Jose along with Tropical Storm Harvey and Tropical Depression Seven. Hardest hit was North Carolina where the flooding from Floyd devastated the eastern half of the state. So far this season, there have been 10 named storms - which is what WRC predicted earlier this year. However, the section of the US coast with the highest probability of experiencing a landfall was from Louisiana to Alabama, which has yet to verify. Storms did make landfall in the second highest probable coast, which was the West Coast of Florida. The season ends November 30. A complete summary will be issued in the next newsletter.

The Houston community has answered the Center's call for volunteers. WRC has always had volunteers for Weather Camp and the Golf tournament, but this year WRC put out a call for volunteers to help with data archiving, the library and filing. The response has been incredible and the volunteers have been great. If you or you know someone who would like to volunteer have him or her call Dorri Breher at 713-529-3076.

The Weather Channel is bringing a team for the tournament to try and dethrone Dr. Neil Frank. Many golfers are selecting their teams and getting ready to beat Dr. Frank's team at the Weatherman's Classic April 10, 2000 at Hearthstone Country Club. Tournament underwriting and sponsorship packages are still available if you know about a company that would like to help The Weather Museum. See enclosed flier.

Weather Research Center is offering classes for the Go-Getters of the San Jacinto Girl Scouts. Classes include Wonders of the Atmosphere, Weather Sights and Sounds, Mapping the Weather, Tornadoes and Hurricanes!

On August 20^th, Houston broke a record high for that day that was set back in 1980 - 101 degrees, with the new record at 105. Also, on that same day in College Station the Aggies were red hot when they broke a record set back in 1930 of 106 degrees with the temperature reaching 107 for the day. The temperature in Houston has only been higher than 105 degrees three times, twice in 1980 and once in 1962. The all time red-hot day in Houston was 107 set on August 23, 1980.

On a hot-related note, the monthly average temperature in Houston has been above normal from May 1998 through August 1999. That streak ended this September when the monthly average temperature finally fell below normal once again. This is a record for Houston with the monthly average temperature above average for so many consecutive months.

The table below compares the number of 100-degree days in 1999 to 1998 demonstrating how much hotter the summer of 1998 was.

1999 1998

The ACP is the result of fifteen years of study by Dr. John C. Freeman and Ms. Jill F. Hasling on possible astronomical effects on predictions of the climate. The study was initiated to study hurricanes and for 14 years one of the models has been used operationally to predict the section of the US coast on which a named tropical cyclone is most likely to make landfall with an accuracy of 78 percent.

Recently, a connection between the climate of countries in the temperate zones and the occurrences of El Nino or La Nina, which are indicated by the ocean temperature near the equator, has been made. El Nino and La Nina are predictable and have been embraced by meteorologists and climatologists as the serious science of long range weather prediction.

The second model used for prediction is based on the orbit of the sun about the center of gravity of the solar system and the orbit of the moon about the earth, when the astronomical bodies are moving in a certain way there are more or less El Niños and La Niñas. The years are marked as active, moderate or inactive and can be predicted many years in advance.

The current forecast gives for each month and city, a two year advanced estimate of:

· The average temperature for the month

· The total rainfall for the month

· The heating degree days (HDD) for the month

· The accumulated total of HDD starting in July

· The cooling degree days (CDD) for the month

· The accumulated total of CDD starting in January

1. The forecast put out by the National Weather Service

A summary of significant weather stories for the four regions of the country and overseas.

Eastern Three states, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, had drought emergencies while portions of Virginia sought out federal disaster assistance due to drought conditions. An August tornado caused damage in Long Island, NY. Hurricane Dennis brushes by the East Coast only to return as a tropical storm and make landfall in North Carolina. Hurricane Floyd caused record flooding in North Carolina. Tropical Storm Harvey moved west to east over Florida with some locations receiving 10 inches or more of rainfall.

Central - Colorado Springs, CO set a station record for 24 hour rainfall with 4.21" that fell on August 4-5. Bismarck, ND also broke a record when 4.74" of rain fell on August 11-12. Eldorado, AR broke a temperature record when the high reached 108 degrees on August 19th. The all time record for Eldorado is 112 degrees set on August 10' 1936.

Southern - August 31, WRC recorded a wind gust of 65 mph during a severe thunderstorm. For 15 minutes the winds gusted well over 50 mph. Little rain falls in August and September.

Western - On August 11th a tornado passed through downtown Salt Lake City, UT.

Overseas - Extreme flooding along the Yangtze River in August killed over 725 people in China. For September, Tropical Storm Wendy increases flooding problems in eastern China. Hurricane Gert moved near the island of Bermuda with minimal to moderate damage resulting.

Did you pull out your old thermodynamics books for the last trivia question? An average hurricane in one day could produce enough heat to keep the electricity running for six months across the entire United States.

Now that things are starting to cool down across the country... can you guess in what location and how much snow set the world record for largest amount of snow in one season (1998-99)? Hint, the answer is somewhere out there on the Internet!

WRC staff added two new age groups to Weather Camp 2000. A session for children age 5-7 called Weather Wonders and an adult session called Meteorological Magic - How to be a Weather Wizard! are new to the curriculum. Also, for the age group 12-17, an Internet course called Weather Surfing will show how to search for weather on the web. Class size is limited so sign up early.

An ice cream social was held Saturday August 14, 1999 at the Center to thank the volunteers for helping out at this year's Weather Camp. The camp was a great success. In addition to the ice cream, volunteers were given certificates, thermometers and rain gauges.

Fall brings the influx of school tours and senior groups. When the curriculum turns to weather, teachers book tours. The students whom come on these tours are exposed to a professional meteorologist who loves to talk about hurricanes and tornadoes.

A troop of Girl Scouts from St. John's School in Houston visited the center and worked on their Weather Badge. Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Jill Hasling answered their questions on weather, weather modification and helped them build a barometer and anemometer.

J. Lane Dubois Freeman and Jill Hasling exhibited at the recent MATS meeting held at the Museum of Natural Science. They talked to over 100 teachers about tours and weather camp and educational programs available at the center.

Heather Scott, Dr. Wayne Ingram and Dr. John C. Freeman were on hand for the MTS Barbecue where WRC had a display on the Center's SS-TCP project.

At the August AMS meeting, two guests, Lonny Farmer of Plylox and James R. Bailey of EQE International offered information and ideas on hurricanes and homes along the Gulf Coast. Mr. Farmer introduced a product he invented called Plylox. These are metal clip devices used to hold plywood over windows and doors. The advantages of the clips over nailing are the amount of time and money saved. Mr. Bailey spoke about the importance of precautions against wind damage for homes, businesses and industries. In September, the guests were Ted Parker of T.M. Parker Products and Miguel Gonzales of R.H. Tamlyn & Sons. Again the topic was hurricanes. Mr. Parker offered an explanation of his product Merlin, a tracking program for hurricanes and tropical storms. Mr. Gonzales was there to discuss some more products that are used to strengthen homes during hurricanes and how the construction industry works with the products.

 The Weather Museum News!

BP Amoco is sponsoring some of the Center's website pages: Texas and Louisiana forecasts and the USA national forecast. All proceeds from the sponsorship go toward The Weather Museum. Preliminary drawings by the architect are now available. The fundraising committee is looking for funding for new restrooms and lifts to make the museum accessible to more people. If your company would like to participate please call, there are many different sponsorships still available.

KROGER Kroger Share Card: Use the Share card every time you shop at

RANDALL's When using your Randall's card tell the cashier to set the

GERLANDS Every time you shop at Gerlands given them Organization ID Number

FOOD FAIR 108910 and Organization Name: Weather Research Center. Call the center for a card.

· Deepwater Technologies and Developments - New Orleans, LA, November 2-3, 1999

· Meteorology and Oceanography of the Coastal Zone - New Orleans, LA, November 3-6, 1999

· 80 Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting - Long Beach, CA, January 9-14,

· National Hurricane Conference - New Orleans, La, April 17-20, 2000

· Weatherman's Classic 2000 - Hearthstone Country Club, April 10, 2000, Houston, Texas