Come see if the bear can see his shadow! Since Texas is so big a groundhog is not big enough to predict our winters. Sixteen schools will set up booths representing different animals at the zoo. The students will research the animal and find out what type of weather this animal experiences in his natural environment and if the animal hibernates. Visitors to the zoo can visit all of the booths and collect the coloring fact pages to create a book of information and enter a drawing to wind the Grand Prize stuffed bear. The zoo opens at 10AM and the bear will look for his shadow at 11AM.

If your company would like to be a sponsor of this fun event contact the center at 713-529-3076.

According to meteorologist Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Weather Research Center, Cuba had a 70% chance of a experiencing a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane.

This verified with Hurricane Michelle ripping through Cuba in November. There also was a 55% chance of the Atlantic Basin having a November storm. This year there were 3 storms in November, Michelle, Noel, and Olga.

In April, meteorologists at Weather Research Center issued their prediction of the US coastlines with the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year. The west coast of Florida and the Louisiana to Alabama coast had the highest probability of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year with a 70% chance. These forecasts verified with Tropical Storm Allison, Barry, and Gabrielle.

WRC meteorologists forecasted a high probability that a tropical storm or hurricane would make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast in the area from Louisiana to the Florida Keys. According to the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] developed at Weather

Research Center; there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on that section of the Gulf Coast. There is a 60% chance that a tropical cyclone will make landfall somewhere on the east coast from Georgia to North Carolina. The Northeast Coast of the United States has a 50% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane in 2001. This verified with Tropical Storm Barry making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border and Tropical Storm Gabrielle making landfall on the West Coast of Florida.

A secondary prediction from the OCSI models is the prediction of the number of storms expected in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The outlook calls for nine named systems with six of these storms intensifying into hurricanes. So far this year there have been fifteen named storms with nine becoming hurricanes.

There is a 90% chance that one of these nine storms will intensify into a strong hurricane of category three or higher. This year there were four storms that made it to Category 3 or higher: Hurricane Erin, Felix, Iris, and Michelle.

The outlook calls for at least three of these storms to make landfall somewhere along the United States coast. This verified with Tropical Storm Allison making landfall on the Texas coast in June, tropical Storm Barry near Alabama and Tropical Storm Gabrielle on the west coast of Florida.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth. The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

WRC meteorologist outlook for the 2002 Hurricane Season shows the west coast of Florida with the highest risk of 80% of a storm. The second highest risk is the Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama which has a 60% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall. The OCSI is

calling for 7 named storms in the Atlantic basin with 4 intensifying into hurricanes. Bermuda has a 50% chance of experiencing a storm. There is a 55% chance of a category 3 or higher hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Basin. The outlook also shows there is a chance of a storm in May and a chance of a storm in November making for another long hurricane season. There is a 75% chance that three more storms will make landfall along the US coast. The Gulf of Mexico Oil Leases have a 81% chance of experience a tropical storm or hurricane.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Hurricanes & Industry was held in Houston November 7 & 8. The were attendees from as far away as Georgia. The talks and panels covered offshore, onshore as well as safety and how to flood proof a building. The intimate conference allowed attendees to ask many questions. The exhibitors, the National Weather Service, Stewart & Stevenson, Enpro, Garner Environmental, Wackenhut, and Drafting Etc. added an element of interest to the conference. Attendees were able to witness a bowling ball being dropped through a glass window.

Meteorologist have been hosting weather classes for the San Jacinto Girl Scouts this fall. These classes cover subjects such as hurricanes, tornadoes and weather observations. The troops have made UV bead bracelets, tornado tubes and anemometers. They also have learned how to make a Family Hurricane Plan and put together a family survival kit.

Senior Weather Wizard John Freeman and J. Lane DuBois hosted a Mini-weather camp for Senior Citizens at the Terrace. This camp included a slide show describing the different ingredients needed to create different types of weather.

Calling all meteorologists! If you are planning to attend the Annual AMS meeting in Orlando Florida in January 2002 plan to stay and play golf on a Jack Nicklaus course and help the Weather Museum. There are still a few sponsorships available. If your company would like to have a presence at the AMS meeting, consider being a sponsor. For more information visit http://www.wxresearch.com/amsgolf or call the center at 713-529-3076

Weather Camp^TM 2002 What’s It All About ???

Each summer, Weather Camp becomes an exciting opportunity for people of all ages to learn more about weather from actual meteorologists! Topics include forecasting, tornado formation, and hurricane tracking. New: two classes offered in Spanish this year!!!

June 17 (10am-3pm) *June 26 (10am-3pm)

June 19 (10am-3pm) *June 28 (10am-3pm)

June 21 (1pm-4pm) July 12 (1pm-4pm)

* Denotes classes taught in Spanish

Visit http://www.weathercamp.org for next year’s dates.

Plan to come by and visit us at our booth 4478. We will have popcorn and other fun features again this year. OTC Exhibits will be in the new exhibition building at Reliant Park.

Volunteers are needed for all sorts of projects at the Center from the Library, Data Room to clerical. Please call the center if you wish to or know someone who would like to volunteer.

The proceeds of the charity golf tournament go to the Weather Research Center for the Weather Museum. The Weather Museum was developed in order to stimulate interest in the scientific fields of meteorology and oceanography, to provide a facility for people of all ages to learn about the weather, obtain weather safety information and to look into the past at how weather was observed.

The founders of the Museum, Dr. John C. Freeman and Jill F. Hasling want to have a facility dedicated entirely to educating the public about the weather, weather safety, and related phenomena. Too many lives are lost and too much property is destroyed due to the lack of weather knowledge.

School children from all over the nation, college students, the community and researchers worldwide will benefit from this new and unique Museum. The Museum will provide a larger facility to house the thousands of school children and citizens that currently tour the Weather Research Center’s facility each year.

Summer internships for high school and college students involved in meteorology are also offered by the Center.

ANSWER TO LAST MONTH’S TRIVIA QUESTION:

The world’s tallest thermometer is located in Baker, California.

What is the record low temperature for the State of Texas?