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Could be an active hurricane season for the Gulf of Mexico! There is a 90 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane affecting the Gulf of Mexico oil leases during the upcoming hurricane season. The highest risk for the landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane is along the Louisiana to Alabama Coast, the west coast of Florida and Georgia to North Carolina which all have a 60 percent chance. According to Certified Consulting Meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. These researchers use the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI).

The overall outlook calls for eight named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin, with five reaching hurricane intensity. There could be storms as early as May, which has a 9 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane, June with a 36 percent chance and as late as November, which has a 30 percent chance, of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Also, there is a 30 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH.

A notable storm in this same phase of the OCSI was 1980 with Hurricane Allen, which was a Category 5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico but weakened to a Category 3 storm before making landfall along the lower Texas Coast. South Padre Island had 68 wash over channels. Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory.

For verification purposes, researchers compared, WRC’s prediction, Dr. Bill Gray’s May predication and a predication made by Climatology. Note in the graph above, zero is the number of storms observed in a year. The best forecast is the one closest to the zero line. WRC’s predictions were exact five times. A forecast based on pure climatology was correct once and Dr. Gray’s May forecast has never exactly predicted the total number of storms in any year since 1985. The closest predictions to the observed were WRC’s with 8 out of 15 being closest to the observed. Dr. Gray’s May prediction was closest to the observed 5 times out of 15 predictions. Two of the years tied for closest prediction in 1985 and 1999. Both methods were better than climatology.

Last year, the section of coastline with the highest risk was along the Louisiana to Alabama coast with a 90 percent chance. This forecast for the highest probability did not verify, but the second highest coast, which was the West Coast of Florida with an 80 percent chance, did with Harvey and Irene. There were 12 total storms, eight becoming hurricanes. The Center's forecasts were for 10 storms with six becoming hurricanes. There was also an 80 percent chance of category 3 storms or higher and this verified with Hurricanes Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny. These annual outlooks have been made since 1985 and have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987, 1992 and 1999 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline. In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook

Weather Research Center will be at booth # 7986 at the Offshore Technology Conference, in Houston May 1-4. Our display will feature Weather Navigator™, Storm Navigator ™ and the SS-TCP ™ services.

For the fifth consecutive year, the weather was nearly perfect for the Weatherman’s Classic golf tournament. KHOU’s Dr. Neil Frank again reigned over the competing weathercasters. There was no rain, but gusty winds were a bit of a problem for the tournament held April 10 at the Hearthstone Country Club in northwest Houston. Over $20,000 was raised in this year’s tournament, with proceeds going to the development of The Weather Museum.

Besides Dr. Frank, other weathercasters competing in this year’s tournament included Bill Bellis (KPRC), Cecilia Sinclair (KRIV) and a team from the Weather Channel – Jim Cantore, Keith Westerlage and Marshall Seese. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service included Bill Read, Gene Hafele and Gregg Waller. Rounding out the other meteorologists were John Freeman, Bill Hildreth, David Epps and Raqui Anawater.

While Dr. Frank will hold onto the crystal "Number 1" trophy as an indication of his golf skills against fellow weathercasters, his teammates of Ron Frank, Dustan Tucker and Ken Guidry came in second overall. The first place team consisted of Paul Freeman, Guy Gagne, Ramsey Evans and Joel Wetzel. Third place honors went to the team of Jim Regitz, Jeff Levers, Scott Shattuck and Todd Curtis. Other honors went to: Bill Read for the putting contest; Joel Wetzel for the longest drive; Richard Cole for the closest to the pin and Gregg Waller for correctly guessing how many birdies were made by all the teams.

The Weather Museum at the Weather Research Center was developed in order to stimulate interest in the field of meteorology and oceanography, to provide a facility for people of all ages to learn about weather, to obtain weather safety information and to look into the past to see how weather was observed. The museum will provide a larger facility to house thousands of school children and citizens that currently tour the Weather Research Center and attend the Weather Camp each year.

Meteorologist Dorri Breher recently presented two sessions entitled "Far-Out Forecasting" at the American Association of University Women’s (AAUW) workshop, "Expanding your Horizons." This workshop is sponsored by the AAUW and is offered to middle school girls to introduce them to professional women working with math and science.

Weather Research Center played host to several different workshops for Girl Scouts of all ages back in January. The workshops covered topics such as tornadoes, mapping the weather, atmospheric works and El Nino and Friends. The sessions also included hands-on experiments that taught the girls how the atmosphere behaved. The scouts took home with them rain gauges, barometers and other educational materials.

Weather Research Center’s scope of services is now available in a business card size CD-ROM. This CD contains all information about the Center’s services including our educational programs such as Weather Camp. We will be distributing these CD-ROMS at the upcoming Offshore Technology Conference.

Metropolitan Association Teacher of Science (MATS) held their Spring Conference Saturday, February 26^th at the Museum of Health and Medical Science in Houston. J. Lane Dubois-Freeman represented The Weather Museum at Weather Research Center and gave teachers and prospective teachers information on the Center’s tours and Weather Camp.

Mike Arellano was invited to talk at the Marine Technology Society’s luncheon in March. The title of his presentation was "The Good, The Bad and the Ugly of Gulf of Mexico Weather", was an overview of the types of weather that affect the operators offshore. Basically, good weather conditions prevail across the waters. During the bad times, strong southerly winds usually precede a cold front before moving offshore. Increased swells can also pose problems. The ugly times in the Gulf of Mexico are during times of hurricanes. Winds in excess of 65 knots will accompany these dangerous storms. Also, hurricanes can affect the currents over the deepwater area.

Weather Research Center once again handed out the Leon F. Graves Award for Best Project in Meteorology at the Houston Engineering Society’s Science Fair. This year’s winner is Christine E. Engerrand, an eighth grader at Duchesne Academy in Houston. Her projected was titled, " Whether Weather is Affected by Land and Water" showed the effects of the sea/land breeze along the coast near Galveston. Some of her research included studying other land/seas effects like the monsoonal flow in India. Her award included a plaque and a bag of weather instruments and other weather-related items. She is also invited to be an assistant at this year’s Weather Camp.

Several meetings of the local chapter have occurred. For February, Lt. Colonel Mike Babcock from the Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorology gave an orientation of his office’s duties and responsibilities. WRC participated in the annual career seminar at Texas A&M in March. Dr. John C. Freeman and Dorri Breher both gave presentations on what Weather Research Center does. Also in March, the meeting here in Houston was a discussion of Global Warming presented by Dr. Gerald North of Texas A&M University. Finally, the most recent meeting in April was the presentation "Living with a Star; Space Weather and Solar Max 23" presented by Dr. Gregory Byrne, Deputy Chief of the Space Science Branch of Johnson Space Center.

Mike Arellano participated in a career day fair at Grady Elementary School in Houston. Dorri Breher gave a severe weather presentation at Deepwater Elementary School in Deer Park, Texas. Joe Tomasellia gave a presentation at the CAN DO Project – Houston’s 4^th Annual Career Day at the University of Houston.

Weather Research Center has exhibited at numerous conferences already this year. The Center has exhibited at the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, the National Hurricane Conference, the AIM Business-to-Business Expo and the Offshore Technology Conference to name a few. This type of exposure is helping get the word out about the Weather Research Center and the Weather Museum.

Often mistaken as a torrential rainstorm, the term monsoon actually describes a wind whose direction consistently reverses with the change in the seasons. These seasonal winds occur over fairly large areas of the earth and perhaps the most notable is the Indian Ocean. Center meteorologists are currently engaged in forecast operations over the South China Sea and equatorial waters of Western Africa and can attest to the consistent wind flow that occurs on a daily basis.

For example, in the South China Sea region, the Northeast Monsoonal prevails during the winter months. Winds speeds are generally 10-20 knots, but when a surge of high pressure builds from the north, it can cause a dramatic increase in the northeasterly flow. During the summer months, the Southwest Monsoon will take over. Again, wind speeds are generally 10-15 knots, but a developing typhoon to the north can cause a surge in the southwesterly flow.

In the case of the Indian Monsoon, wind flow results from a reversal of pressure following changes in land temperature from winter to summer. In winter, the winds normally blow from the northeast, the result of high pressure over Asia. These winds are also cold and dry because of their continental origin.

In the summer, the process is reversed. Winds now originate over the open tropical waters and usually blow from the southwest. Being warm and humid, the summer monsoon then strikes the high plateaus and mountains of coastal India. The air is forced to ascend, thereby cooling and often resulting in very heavy rains over parts of India. Flooding takes it’s toll and casualties and damage estimates are usually high. These losses often make the news headlines, consequently associating the term monsoon with death and destruction. Therefore, the monsoon whish is frequently mistaken as a torrential killer rainstorm, is actually a seasonal wind which sometimes has the potential to cause destructive-like rains.

WRC meteorologists can provide daily deep water site specific current profiles in the Gulf of Mexico. SS-TCP provides a four to seven day current forecast that is available three, five or seven days a week. Each forecast is tailored to the specific location of the customer’s operations. This is the only model of this type that is available today. Those companies with operations in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico understand the hazards that currents can cause. Unexpected current speeds can cause problems in operations costing time and money.

You can now make your donations on line to The Weather Museum and Weather Research Center through givenation.com. Go to http://www.givenation.com/. Then search for Weather Research Center under search for non-profit.

Spaces are still available for all sessions of Weather Camp that will be held this June, July and August. There are new sessions this year for students ages 5-7, as well as new adult classes. For further information, you can go to: http://www.wxresearch.org/education/camp.html

Send all your weather nuts of all ages to Weather Camp!

Meteorologists and oceanographers at the Center can provide research studies on subjects ranging from Design and Extreme Conditions to Wave Forces, Wave Spectra and Currents. For more information about environmental design studies, please call the Center.

You can support The Weather Museum by purchasing a glass block or a paving stone engraved with your message or name. You can also help out the museum by using your Randall's Card and tell them to use #3631 when you check out. If you grocery shop at Kroger, please be sure to use your Kroger's Share Card.

Your company might want to sponsor some of the Center's free web pages. These pages include weather forecasts and other important information for the public. Have your company become involved in the community by providing this valuable information. For more information, please call Joe Tomaselli at the Center, 713-529-3076.

In the last newsletter we asked you if you knew which Texas county had the highest number of tornado sightings? Why it is right here in Harris County, Texas! This is according to the latest data (1950-1995) retrieved from The Tornado Project. This next question is an easy one: what will be the name of the first hurricane this year in the Atlantic Ocean basin? Hint – it’s somewhere in this newsletter!!!

Once again Center meteorologists set up the rain gauge at the Houston International Festival to measure rainfall in downtown Houston, during the first two weekends of April. For insurance purposes, the Festival takes out coverage in the event rain should deter potential crowds. Each year that the Center has taken rain measurements, there has been no rainfall at the festival.

This year’s auction for the Weatherman’s Classic was held on Ebay. The auction continues with items such as a complete weather station and an autographed poster from former President George Bush. The auction has been such a great success that Weather Research Center plans to continue to have a presence on Ebay’s Charity Page. To find the Weather Museum’s auction, go to http://www.ebay.com/charity

Two of the center’s meteorologists, Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman, are certified by the American Meteorological Society. According to the American Meteorological Society a "consulting meteorologist" is a professional meteorologist whose practice is founded upon an understanding of the atmosphere and its behavior, and upon the beneficial application of his or her abilities to the affairs of humankind." The certification program (CCM) was to establish high standards of technical competence, character, and experience for certified consultants who provide advice in meteorology to the public. The qualifications for certification are knowledge, experience, and character.

Knowledge demonstrates that the meteorologist has an understanding of the main aspects of meteorology. Experience demonstrates that the meteorologist has mature judgement and self confidence attained by applying knowledge to a useful end. Character demonstrates that the meteorologist must be of the finest and be manifest in devotion to the highest professional ideals.

If you have trouble remembering our web site address (www.wxresearch.com), the following should make it easier to find Weather Research Center:

http://www.weatherresearchcenter.com

http://www.weatherresearchcenter.org

http://www.weathernavigator.com

http://www.stormnavigator.com

http://www.theweathermuseum.org

http://www.weathercamp.org

http://www.weathercamp.com

Atlantic – Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Keith, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

Eastern Pacific – Aletta, Bud, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy, Lane, Miriam, Norman, Olivia, Paul Rosa, Sergio, Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda

A deadly tornado ripped through downtown Fort Worth on Tuesday, March 28, 2000. This was the first deadly tornado in the city’s history according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Extensive damage was done to numerous downtown buildings, most notably to the Cash America International Building and the Calvary Cathedral. At least two people were killed when the twister hit, and one person was killed as a result of being struck by hail. Losses are estimated to be over $450 million.

Weather Research Center volunteer Sid Parkans was born in North Dakota and raised in Minnesota. After finishing his education at the university of Minnesota, he came to Houston in 1947 and went to work for Gulf Oil as a geologist. He has been a consulting geologist since 1960, working for small companies and mostly independent operators in oil and gas exploration and development. He is now doing work for the grandchildren of his original clients!

His work has taken him around the world, which has led, with the exception of South America and Africa – the two continents he has yet to visit. He is the father of two children, both professionals, and plays gold frequently. When travelling across country by car, he sometimes detours to some interesting golf courses. He says that people ask him if he is retired. His answer, "some days!"