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Weather Research Center forecasted that the highest risk of the landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane was along the west coast of Florida, the Louisiana to Alabama Coast, and the Georgia to North Carolina coast which all had a 60% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. The West Coast of Florida forecast verified with the landfall of both Gordon and Helene on the Florida Peninsula. Helene made landfall very close to the Alabama Florida border. According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico would be an active place for storm activity this summer. This verified with Beryl, Gordon, Helene and Keith. These forecasts are made using the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) model.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern of the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth. The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. The table below gives the forecast for all sections of the coast for the 2000 Hurricane Season. Notice there are three sections that have the highest probability. Also the West Coast of Florida's probability is less than the probability based on climatology.

The index also forecasted the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that will form during the season. The overall outlook called for eight named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin with five reaching hurricane intensity. The season saw fourteen named storms with eight of these making it to hurricane intensity.

There was a possibility of storms as early as May which had a 9% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane; June with a 36% chance; July with a 18% chance; August with a 91% chance; September with a 100% chance; October with a 91% chance; and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. There were four storms in August; Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby. There were six storms that started in September; Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. Two of these storms continued on into October; Isaac and Joyce. Four other storms formed in October; Keith, Leslie, Michael and Nadine.

Also, there was a 30 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH, and is classified as category 3, 4, or 5 (Saffir-Simpson Scale). This verified with three storms; Hurricane Alberto, which became a Category 3 and Hurricane Isaac and Keith who intensified into Category 4.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory.

Since 1985, these forecasts have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987, 1992, and 1999 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline.

Weather Research Center's OCSI model also forecasts the number of tropical storms that will form each year. The following Table gives a comparison of WRC's forecast, Dr. William Gray's forecast issued prior to May and Climatology.

- Under Forecast + Over Forecasts 0 Is Exact Forecasts

Notice WRC has 5 Exact Forecasts [0's]. Gray has none. WRC then has 2 forecasts that were within one storm and Gray has 5 that were within 1. WRC then has 3 forecasts that were within two storms of the observed and Gray had 4.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

On Monday, September 4, Houston set an all-time record high temperature of 109 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The previous record was 107 degrees set back on August 23, 1980 and was tied again on August 31, 2000 and on September 1. September 5 had a maximum temperature of 108 degrees. For the summer of 2000 there were 52 days with temperatures greater than 95 degrees. Not a record, but hot enough! Ironically, the heat was broken just a month later when an early cold front arrived on October 7 and produced high temperatures of 60, 50 and 53 degrees on October 7-9 respectively.

On November 1^st and 2^nd, Weather Research Center exhibited at the Houston Independent School District’s Schools of Excellence Conference and Trade Show. Over 17,000 teachers and administrators from across the area attended the event. Our exhibit focused on Museum programs such as tours, talks and Weather Camp. Mary David was the winner of the drawing for a museum backpack filled with weather goodies.

The Houston Chapter of the AMS started up another year early beginning with the September meeting. Members joined to commemorate the 100^th Anniversary of the Great Galveston Storm of 1900. Speakers included Casey Green, Alecya Gallaway, Melanie Wiggins and Bill Read. The descendents of the Cline Brothers were invited as special guests for the event. ~ The October meeting was held at KTRH-Channel 13 Studios. The Weather Team (Ed Brandon, Doug Brown and Heidi Jones) led a tour of the site. Members were invited to test out their forecasting skill on tape in the news studio. They were also invited to watch the 10 o’clock broadcast – live. ~ In November, members visited Universal Weather & Aviation. John Hathorn was the speaker. His topic was "How Weather Events and Climatological Events Shape History." Remember to check out the new website at http://www.houstonams.org

The condition known as La Niña has finally subsided and we are returning to a normal year without an El Niño or a La Niña. This might make long range forecasting more difficult, but perhaps normal weather will be great. How long do we have before the next El Niño? Dr. Freeman’s research seems to indicate we might have until 2002. See corresponding story on page 5.

You can now make your donations on line to The Weather Museum and Weather Research Center through givenation.com. Go to www.theweathermuseum.org and click onto the Givenation icon.

Dr. John C. Freeman, Director of Research at Weather Research Center attended the Hudnall Symposium on the 60^th Anniversary of the founding for the Institute for Meteorology at the University of Chicago.

Dr. Freeman attended and worked at the Institute for Meteorology in early 50's where he received his Doctorate in Meteorology before becoming a research professor at Texas A&M University. The Institute for Meteorology is known for bringing consideration of the upper air into forecasting the weather.

Much of the early research on the jet stream was done at the University of Chicago. Dr. Freeman's research was on blocking in the jet stream and his early work on the theory of wave cyclones was done while there.

Professor C.G. Rossby, the most influential meteorologist of the twentieth century, founded the Institute of Meteorology at the University of Chicago. Weather forecasting changed from an art to a science largely through the efforts of Rossby’s students and colleagues. Much of their work was done at the Institute of Meteorology.

The Astronomical Climatic Prediction (ACP) basically makes a prediction that the year is going to be an active, moderate or inactive year. An active year has a probability of a notable episode in the Southern Oscillation (SO) of 80%, a moderate year will have a 30% chance and an inactive year will have a 15% chance of such an episode. A notable episode in the SO is a year in which the Climatic Prediction Center of NOAA designates as a warm or cold episode in the SO. A warm episode in the SO is almost always an El Niño year and a cold episode is almost always a La Niña year.

The probability distributions of temperature and precipitation for each month of active, moderate and inactive years show a distinct difference. Thus predictions can be made with the ACP.

It is difficult to predict whether an El Niño or La Niña will occur without independent knowledge of the current weather. However, when it is known that a La Niña has occurred and that an active year is going to occur in a year or two, an El Niño can be predicted with some accuracy.

The current state of the SO is neutral just coming off two La Niña years in 1998 and 1999. The year 2000 was an active year but the La Niña conditions were so entrenched that El Niño conditions could not occur. The year 2001 is an inactive year so that designation as a warm episode is unlikely in 2001. The year 2002 is a moderate year with 40% chance of a notable episode in the SO occurring and it would be expected to be an El Niño. The year 2003 is an inactive year so it is expected to be neutral. The year 2004 would likely be an El Niño year if 2002 was neutral and would have a probability of 40% of being a La Niña year if 2002 was an El Niño year.

The Weather Museum continues to have items available for auction. To access our current auction go to http:\\www.theweathermuseum.org and click onto the ebay logo in the main page and then click onto The Weather Museum. This is a great way to help

And so The Weather Museum’s international reputation goes before it: Jo came all the way from London, England to help us fundraise! Serious globetrotters at heart, Jo and her husband Nick came to Houston as a result of a transfer for Nick from his London office. Five months, a summer that would send most Brits running for cover and a very amusing presidential election later, they are still here and seemingly here to stay.

Both graduates of Russian and Soviet Studies from Manchester University (where they met), their love for the Russian language and history took them to Moscow for just over a year. Here Jo worked as a journalist for the Moscow Times and a local real estate publication, discovering a love of writing and a hatred of deadlines! The minus 25 degree winters and vodka for breakfast are something she won’t forget easily.

Jo’s next destination was to be Osaka, Japan, where her and Nick trained as English teachers, then becoming Teacher Trainers, each responsible for their own schools. For Jo, Japan was stunning countryside, fascinating people and as much sushi as you can eat. But the desire to use their Russian language took them back home again for two years.

Back in London, Jo became an expert in the field of immigration to Russia, often to be seen hobnobbing with the Russian Consuls and Ambassadors in Notting Hill!

Surprisingly for some, Jo says that Texas is the strangest place that she has lived so far! But that is not to say that her and Nick have not made the most of their time here and loved every minute of it. Every weekend is packed with camping, seeing the sights and sampling Houston’s vivid nightlife! As well as helping us fundraise on a daily basis, Jo (a passionate and long time lacrosse player) voluntarily coaches Rice University lacrosse club.

Although Jo very much enjoys her fundraising role with the Weather Museum, she would love to find sponsorship with a company to be able to use her Russian again. In the mean time, we have certainly enjoyed the international flavor and sharp British humor that she has brought to the center.

It is not too late to become a founding member of the Weather Museum. If you or a loved one have an interest in weather, you must be a member. The Museum will be a wonderful place for people to come and learn and talk about the weather. Museum memberships make a great gift.

A great gift idea is to donate a paving stone or glass brick in someone’s name. This makes a great gift. Another great gift for your weather nut is a founding membership to the Weather Museum. For more information go to www.theweathermuseum.org.

ANYONE CAN COME AND PLAY! Come beat the weathermen! It is time to plan to help the museum by participating in the Weatherman’s Classic on Monday 16 April 2001 at Hearthstone Country Club. We still need underwriters, sponsors, players and volunteers. PLEASE CALL THE CENTER IF YOU OR YOUR COMPANY WOULD LIKE TO PARTICIPATE!

Last issue, we asked about a category five hurricane that caused a 15 foot (4.6 meter) tidal surge as it came ashore in the Florida Keys on Labor Day. The year was 1935 and Labor Day was September 2^nd. (Labor Day occurs on the first Monday of September.) Now that winter has gripped most of the US, have you ever wondered how many types of snowflakes there are? How many basic shapes are there? Can you name them??

Each summer, Weather Camp becomes an exciting opportunity for people of all ages to learn more about weather from actual meteorologists! Topics include forecasting, tornado formation and hurricane tracking. The schedule is listed below

June 22 (1pm – 4pm) July 13 (1pm – 4pm)

 The Weather Report is the official newsletter of the Weather Research Center and is published monthly. To receive the newsletter promptly, please send all address corrections to the Center. We are located at 3227 Audley St., Houston, Texas 77098. For information about the Center and its services, please call (713) 529-3076 or toll-free (800) 44-STORM. Our fax number is (713) 528-3538. The e-mail address is wrc@wxresearch.com. Our Internet addresses are www.weatherresearchcenter.com or www.weatherresearchcenter.org

Dr. Neil Frank, KHOU-TV; Frank Billingsley, KPRC-TV; Doug Brown, KTRK-TV;