Weather Research Centertm

HOUSTON - Meteorologists at Weather Research Center forecasted that the highest risk of landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane was along the west coast of Florida, the Louisiana to Alabama Coast, and the Georgia to North Carolina coast which all had a 60% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. The west coast of Florida forecast verified with the landfall of both Gordon and Helene on the Florida Peninsula. Helene made landfall very close to the Alabama Florida border. According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico would be an active place for storm activity this summer. This verified with Beryl, Gordon, Helene and Keith. These forecasts are made using the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] model.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern of the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth.

The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. The table below gives the forecast for all sections of the coast for the 2000 Hurricane Season. Notice there are three sections that have the highest probability. Also the West Coast of Florida's probability is less than the probability based on climatology.

The index also forecasted the number of tropical storms and hurricanes which will form during the season. The overall outlook called for eight named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin with five reaching hurricane intensity. The season saw fourteen named storms with eight of these making it to hurricane intensity.

There was a possibility of storms as early as May with a 9% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane; June with a 36% chance; July with a 18% chance; August with a 91% chance; September with a 100% chance; October with a 91% chance; and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. There were four storms in August; Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby. There were six storms that started in September; Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. Two of these storms, Isaac and Joyce, continued into October. Four other storms formed in October; Keith, Leslie, Michael and Nadine.

Also, there was a 30 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH, and is classified as category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. This verified with three storms; Hurricane Alberto which became a Category 3 and Hurricane Isaac and Keith who intensified into Category 4.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory.

These forecasts have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987, 1992, and 1999 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline.

Weather Research Center's OCSI model also forecasts the number of tropical storms that will form each year. The following Table gives a comparison of WRC's forecast and Dr. William Gray's forecast issued prior to May.

- Under Forecast + Over Forecasts 0 Is Exact Forecasts

Notice WRC has 5 Exact Forecasts [0's]. Gray has none. WRC then has 2 forecasts that were within one storm and Gray has 5 that were within 1. WRC then has 3 forecasts that were within two storms of the observed and Gray had 4.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet,

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman are both Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Both are researchers and founding directors of the Weather Research Center which is a non-profit educational and research facility based in Houston, Texas. Dr. Freeman has over 50 years of meteorological experience and Ms. Hasling has over 25 years experience. Both have been involved in tropical meteorology research and have been working together on this forecast method since 1985.