5104 Caroline Houston, Texas 77004 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.com

HOUSTON - There is a 90 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane affecting the Gulf of Mexico oil leases in 2000. The highest risk of the landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane are along the Louisiana to Alabama Coast, the west coast of Florida and the Georgia to North Carolina coast which all have a 60% chance. According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. These forecasts are made using the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] model.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth.

The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. The table below gives the forecast for all sections of the coast for the 2000 Hurricane Season. Notice there are three sections that have the highest probability. Also the West Coast of Florida's probability is less than the probability based on climatology.

The index also forecasts the number of tropical storms and hurricanes which will form during the season. The overall outlook calls for eight named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin with five reaching hurricane intensity. There could be storms as early as May which has a 9% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane; June with a 36% chance; July with a 18% chance; August with a 91% chance; September with a 100% chance; October with a 91% chance; and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Also, there is a 30 percent chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane occurring somewhere in the Atlantic. A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 MPH, and is classified as category 3, 4, or 5.

A notable storm in this same phase of the OCSI was Hurricane Allen in 1980 which was a Category 5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico but weakened to a Category 3 storm before making landfall along the lower Texas Coast. During this storm, sixty-eight wash-over channels were cut through South Padre Island.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory. Last year, the section of coastline with the highest risk was along the Louisiana to Alabama coast with a 90 percent chance. This forecast for the highest probability did not verify but the second highest coast which was the west coast of Florida with an 80% chance did verifty with Harvey and Irene. There were 12 total storms, eight becoming hurricanes. The Center's forecasts was for 10 storms with six becoming hurricanes. There was also an 80% chance of Category 3 or higher storms and this verified with Hurricane Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny.

Since 1985 these outlooks have been made annually. These forecasts have verified with a strike in the highest risk coastline each year, with the exception of 1987, 1992, and 1999 when storms struck in the second highest risk coastline.

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Weather Research Center's OCSI model also forecasts the number of tropical storms that will form each year. The following Table gives a comparison of WRC's forecast, Climatology, and Dr. William Gray's forecast issued prior to May.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Jill F. Hasling, CCM will be available for interviews and further information at Weather Research Center's booth at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana on Wednesday April 19 - Thursday April 20, 2000.

Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman are both Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Both are researchers and founding directors of the Weather Research Center which is a non-profit educational and research facility based in Houston, Texas. Dr. Freeman has over 50 years of meteorological experience and Ms. Hasling has over 25 years experience. Both have been involved in tropical meteorology research and have been working together on this forecast method since 1985.