3227 Audley Houston, Texas 77098 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Thursday July 29, 1999

FOR INFORMATION CONTACT

Quiet hurricane season so far with only one tropical storm!

Houston - Meteorologists at Houston based Weather Research Center have

reviewed data from 1900-1998 and tabulated the number of tropical cyclones

that have formed after August 1st. While Center meteorologists have

projected ten named storms for this year, other forecasters have projected

as many as 14. So what is the probability of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean

Sea and Gulf of Mexico experiencing 14 storms this year?

Since 1900 there have been 13 years when there were more than 10 storms

that have formed after August 1st. Following is the list of those years:

1916: 11

1933: 16

1936: 11

1949: 13

1950: 13

1953: 13

1955: 11

1969: 13

1971: 12

1984: 12

1988: 12

1990: 11

1998: 13

Only six of these years had 13 or more storms form.

So far this year, only one tropical cyclone has formed - Tropical Storm

Arlene, back on June 12. There have not been any other storms since then.

The peak of hurricane season starts in the middle of August and lasts

through September, so the activity in the Atlantic Basin should begin to

increase. The benefits of a tropical system is evident with the Texas

coast catching up on rains as tropical moisture has streamed in from the

Gulf, while the East Coast has been in a drought due to the lack of rain.

Many times in the past, droughts have been broken by these tropical systems.

Meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman's earlier outlook for

storms forming in the Atlantic Basin remains at ten with six becoming

hurricanes. The section of the United States coast with the highest

probability of landfall is the coastline from Louisiana to Alabama at

90 percent. If a storm does make landfall, hopefully it will bring much

needed rains to the drought stricken areas.