Weather Research Centertm

HOUSTON - Researchers at Weather Research Center wondered what type of winds the Upper Texas Coast would have experienced if a storm the strength of Bret (Category 4 on the Saffir/Simpson Scale) would have caused in the Houston area. Meteorologist Jill F. Hasing and Dr. John C. Freeman took the windfield of Bret and computed the sustained winds that could have been measured by such a storm.

Maximum Sustained Winds from a Bret type storm:

These are sustained winds - gusts would be higher. These would be record winds for the area. Tides would have been 15 to 20 feet.

Each year Weather Research Center puts out a forecast for the section of the coast with the highest chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. This year Texas was ranked third with a 70% chance of experiencingsuch a storm. This verifies with the landfall of Bret.

WRC's outlooks also calls for 10 named storms this year. So far we have had three. Another interesting note is that similar storms in the phase of the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) were Beulah in 1967. Beulah had a similar landfall on the Texas Coast. Other recent years that have been in this forecast phase are 1957, 1967, 1979 and 1989. Notable storms in those years were Hurricane Audry 1957, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast; Hurricane Beulah in 1967, that made landfall on the lower Texas Coast; Hurricane Frederic in 1979, which made landfall along the Alabama coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which made landfall on the South Carolina coast. Also in 1989, Galveston, Texas saw three storms make landfall: Tropical Storm Allison, Hurricane Chantal and Hurricane Jerry.

Every section of the United States coastline has a chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane each year. This outlook does not indicate that one will not experience a storm, but rather indicates which section of coastline will most likely experience a storm. The Center has been making these predictions since 1985 and makes only one forecast per hurricane season. This differs from other forecasts as a result of different methods and theory.