Weather Research Centertm

HOUSTON - Since 1985 research meteorologists at Houston-based Weather Research Center have been predicting landfall probabilities along the US coast. According to the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI), there is a 90 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Louisiana to Alabama coast during the upcoming hurricane season, which begins June 1st, according to meteorologists Dr. John C. Freeman and Jill F. Hasling. This is the highest risk of any of the coastline from Texas through Maine.

Freeman and Hasling also believe that the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. After Louisiana-Alabama, the next highest risk of a storm strike is the west coast of Florida with a 80 percent chance and the third highest is the Texas coast with a 70 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

The overall outlook calls for ten named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean Basin with six reaching hurricane intensity. There could be storms as early as June which has a 60 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane, and as late as November which has a 30 percent chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

According to OCSI, there is an 82 percent chance that somewhere from Mexico to Maine will experience the landfall of a category 3 or higher storm. There is a 45 percent chance that this landfall would be somewhere along the Louisiana to Alabama Coast.

There is 73 percent chance of a hurricane of any intensity making land fall along the Texas Coast or the Louisiana to Alabama coast.

For more information and a complete outlook for the 1999 Season please go to our web site: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.