HOUSTON- There is now little doubt that a Pacific basin warm episode, otherwise known as El Niño, has returned. As of the second week in July, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed El Niño based upon the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data. In a large portion of the Pacific, the CPC reported May sea-surface temperatures above normal by several degrees Fahrenheit, which is a strong indicator that El Niño is developing.

There’s more…. In the Weather Research Center forecast made in fall of 2000, Dr. John C. Freeman predicted 2002 would be an El Niño year. Taken from The Weather Report of Sep/Oct/Nov 2000, "The year 2002 is a moderate year with 40% chance of a notable episode in the SO (Southern Oscillation) occurring and it would be expected to be an El Niño. Dr. Freeman said recently, "the strong La Niña years in 1998 and 1999 were lingering and it looked like the conditions for 2000 and 2001 would be like La Niña conditions but not strong enough to be called La Niña years. Therefore the moderate year 2002 was likely to be an El Niño year rather than a neutral or La Niña year."

The strongest implications from El Niño occur during the winter months, where NOAA has found winter storms tend to be more vigorous in the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeast coast of the United States. This could result in a wetter than normal winter in Texas and the Gulf coast states. More specifically, El Niño years rank among the wettest in southeast Texas during the months from December to March. In addition, temperatures in southeast Texas from February to April rank among the coolest during El Niño events.

El Niño conditions also historically tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Although El Niño may not be strong enough to be a factor in this year’s hurricane season.

NOAA forecasters indicate the El Niño conditions will likely continue through the end of 2002 and into early 2003. Although NOAA states uncertainty in the timing and intensity of this warm episode, forecasters indicate that it will be much weaker than the strong 1997-98 El Niño.

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