Weather Research Centertm

HOUSTON - Research meteorologists at Houston based Weather Research Center are forecasting that there is a high probability that a tropical storm or hurricane will make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Keys. The Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] indicates that there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on that section of the Gulf Coast. There is a 60% chance that a tropical cyclone will make landfall somewhere on the east from Georgia to North Carolina. The Northeast Coast of the United States has a 50% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane in 2001.

According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. These forecasts are made using the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] model.

A secondary prediction from the OCSI models is the predication of the number of storms expected in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The outlooks calls for nine named systems with six of these storm intensifying into hurricanes. There is a 90% chance that one of these nine storms will intensify into a strong hurricane category three or higher. The outlook calls for at least three of these storms making landfall some where along the United States coast .

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth.

The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

Last year, the section of coastline with the highest risk was along the West Coast of Florida with a 60 percent chance and along the Georgia to Virginia border. This forecast for the highest probability did verify with Tropical Storm Gordon and Helene making landfall on the west coast of Florida. There were 14 total storms, eight becoming hurricanes. The Center's forecasts was for eight storms with six becoming hurricanes.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman are both Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Both are researchers and founding directors of the Weather Research Center which is a non-profit educational and research facility based in Houston, Texas. Dr. Freeman has over 50 years of meteorological experience and Ms. Hasling has over 25 years experience. Both have been involved in tropical meteorology research and have been working together on this forecast method since 1985.