Weather Research CenterTM

HOUSTON – "Barry verifies our 2001 Forecasts for the section of the US coastline that will experience a tropical storm or hurricane" stated Jill F. Hasling, Director of Houston based Weather Research Center. In April, meteorologists at Weather Research Center issued their prediction of the coastlines with the highest risk of tropical storm or hurricane this year. The west coast of Florida and the Louisiana to Alabama coast had the highest probability of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this year with a 70% chance.

Research meteorologists at Houston based Weather Research Center continue to support their initial forecast predicting the landfall of hurricanes and tropical storms in 2001. Earlier this year, the meteorologists forecast a high probability that a tropical storm or hurricane will make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast in the area from Louisiana to the Florida Keys. According to the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] developed at Weather Research Center; there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on that section of the Gulf Coast. There is a 60% chance that a tropical cyclone will make landfall somewhere on the east coast from Georgia to North Carolina. The Northeast Coast of the United States has a 50% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane in 2001.

According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Houston-based Weather Research Center, the Gulf of Mexico could be an active place for storm activity this summer. These forecasts are made using the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] model. A secondary prediction from the OCSI models is the predication of the number of storms expected in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The outlook calls for nine named systems with six of these storms intensifying into hurricanes. There is a 90% chance that one of these nine storms will intensify into a strong hurricane of category three or higher. The outlook calls for at least three of these storms to make landfall somewhere along the United States coast.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the

global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently, the global circulation pattern of the earth.

The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index,

hurricane climatology has been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

Meteorologists at the center are looking for 7 more named storms in the Atlantic Basin this year for a total of 9. The peak of hurricane season is almost here from August 15 to September 15.

Gulf Consultants and Weather Research Center are hosting a Hurricanes & Industry Conference in November 2001. This will be a good place to review what happened during Allison and what can be done for corporate Houston and government to better prepare for the future. In other words, what went right, what went wrong, and what can be done to improve response and recovery plans.

In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman are both Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Both are researchers and founding directors of the Weather Research Center, which is a non-profit educational and research facility, based in Houston, Texas. Dr. Freeman has over 50 years of meteorological experience and Ms. Hasling has over 25 years experience. Both have been involved in tropical meteorology research and have been working together on this forecast method since 1985.