Weather Research Centertm

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Friday, October 3, 1997

HOUSTON - Since 1900, there has been 13 years when there has only been one tropical cyclone (hurricane or tropical storm) in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin during the month of September, that according to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Weather Research Center. The last time there was only one September storm was back in 1946.

In addition, there was on average one to two storms in October and November over those 13 years. The years with only one September storm were: 1902; 1904; 1911; 1912; 1914; 1919; 1922; 1925; 1929; 1930; 1938; 1939 and 1946.

Weather Research Center's 1997 hurricane outlook projected seven named storms in the Atlantic with four reaching hurricane intensity. So far this year there have been five named storms: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny and Erika. Three of these storms (Bill, Danny and Erika) intensified into hurricanes. Hurricane Erika has been the strongest - a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH.

In the 13 years with only one tropical cyclone, there were 11 years which had storms in October and November. The two years without October or November storms were in 1914 and 1930 - both El Nino years. On average, there were 4.2 storms per season during those 13 years. The total number of storms in the 13 years ranged from one to eight storms. Eight out of the 13 years were El Nino years. A strong El Nino event probably attributed to this season's lack of tropical activity. In any event, there is still a chance that there could be another storm before the season ends on November 30.