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Houston – In 1998, meteorologist at Houston Based Weather Research Center developed the Astronomical Climatological Prediction Model [ACP]. "This model can makes a very long lead outlook for 50 to 100 years" stated meteorologist Dr. John C. Freeman. The method uses the episodes [years] of the orbit of the moon and the orbit of the sun and classifies these years as "Active", "Moderate" or "Inactive" years.

A a notable episode in the Southern Oscillation [NESO] is a year that has been defined a cold [La Nina] or a warm [EL Nino] episode in the Southern Oscillation by the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. The Southern Oscillation is change in the sea level pressure in the eastern Pacific and the western-Pacific-Indian Ocean region. The oscillation is also noted in the atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation and has been found to be associated with the change in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific with a warming or cooling. An "Active" year has an 80% chance of an occurrence of NESO . A "Moderate" year has a 30% chance of a NESO and an "Inactive" year has a 15% chance of a NESO.

In 1998, the outlook for 2002 was that it would be a moderate year. Which gave a 30% chance of a NESO event. NOAA Is predicting that a warm event will take place in 2002.

The last few years with their ACP designation and notation if there was a NESO.

Year ACP Designation NESO

1994 Active Warm

1995 Active Cold

1996 Moderate Cold

1997 Moderate Warm

1998 Inactive Cold

1999 Active Cold

2000 Active Neutral

2001 Inactive Neutral

2002 Moderate Warm

This breaks down that since 1994 there have been 4 active years and 3 of these years had a NESO event for a percentage of 75%. Three of the years were moderate and three had NESO for a percentage of 100% and 2 of the years were inactive and one of those years had a NESO event for 50%.

The forecast for the next eleven years is as follows:

Year ACP Designation Chance of NESO

2003 Inactive 15%

2004 Moderate 30%

2005 Inactive 15%

2006 Moderate 30%

2007 Active 80%

2008 Active 80%

2009 Moderate 30%

2010 Moderate 30%

2011 Active 80%

2012 Inactive 15%

2013 Active 80%

This indicates that the years that have the highest chance of a notable event such as El Nino or La Nina are 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2013.

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